Supervisor: Our next budget proposal

Answer choices

1. A

   Too Strong: Guarantees / Next Five19% picked this

   the last five budget proposals’ having been turned down guarantees that the next five budget

   The author is only talking about the next one, and she isn't saying its approval is guaranteed, just that its approval is likely ("probably be approved").

   19%
2. B

   Out of Scope: Required To Approve10% picked this

   the vice president is required to approve at least half of all

   The author just said that "normally about half are approved". There's no way we can take that to mean "it is required that at least half are approved".

   10%
3. C

   Correct69% picked this

   having the last five budget proposals turned down affects the likelihood that the next budget proposal

   Why this is right

   This is stating the Gambler's Fallacy type of thinking. Suppose the only premise we had was "normally about half of all budget proposals are approved". How should we estimate the probability that this next budget proposal will be approved? We'd say, "Okay, all other things being equal, it's got around a 50% chance of being approved". We wouldn't say "it will probably be approved, because that would go against the idea that normally only about half of them are actually approved." The author adds in another premise, "Yes, but --- the previous five have been turned down, thus the next one probably will be approved." So the author is clearly thinking that this streak of rejections moves the probability from where it would be by default (around 50%) to the level of probably (greater than 50%). If we negate this answer it becomes an objection: "Yo, author -- whether the last five proposals were approved or rejected has no effect on the likelihood that the next one will be approved or rejected, therefore the probability is around 50%, not probable"

   Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   69%
4. D

   Out of Scope: Deserved1% picked this

   the majority of the last five budget proposals deserved to be

   The author isn't offering any thoughts on whether the last five proposals were correctly or incorrectly turned down. If we negated this answer and said, "Most of the last five did not deserve to be turned down", that might even strengthen the author, because he could argue that the VP has even more of an impetus to approve this next proposal, after having undeservedly rejected some previous ones.

   1%
5. E

   Out Of Scope1% picked this

   the likelihood that a budget proposal will be approved is influenced by the amount of money

   Out Of Scope: Amount Of Money Requested The argument doesn't discuss anything about how much money is requested in this proposal vs. another one, so the author hasn't committed to any notions about a relationship between amount requested and likelihood of approval.

   1%