Because of increases in the price

Answer choices

1. A

   Very Weak Impact7% picked this

   The price of natural gas to heat homes has remained constant, while the cost of equipment to heat homes with

   The first half of this is neutral (the cost of gas stays the same). The second half allows us to think that people who switched to natural gas in the last few years paid a much cheaper price for their natural gas equipment than did all the other people who switched since 1970. So, for these recent gas-switchers, the cost of switching to gas wasn't that high. Thus, it wouldn't be too painful to decide "screw it, I'm going back to oil" for them. But this answer gives them no incentive to switch back to oil. And the people who bought natural gas equipment in the last few years probably don't represent a huge chunk of the natural gas users. The conclusion allows for the fact that some people will switch back. It's specifically predicting there won't be a significant switch back.

   7%
2. B

   No Impact19% picked this

   The price of home heating oil has remained constant, while the cost of equipment to heat homes with

   The first half of this is neutral (the cost of oil stays the same). The second half allows us to think that people won't be switching to natural gas much in the near future (because the equipment has gotten so expensive). But they are irrelevant. If they're currently oil users, we don't care about them. This prediction is only about whether a significant number of current gas users will be incentivized to switch back to oil. They already have their gas equipment, so the price hike on gas equipment doesn't affect them at all.

   19%
3. C

   No Impact5% picked this

   The cost of equipment to heat homes with natural gas has fallen sharply, while the price of home heating oil

   The first half of this is mainly neutral. As we discussed with (A), people who bought natural gas equipment in the last few years might have bought it so cheap that the "wasted money" of switching back to oil wouldn't be a big disincentive to them. But they're only a small slice of the natural gas using public. And what is their incentive for switching back? Oil is apparently back to what it cost in 1970, which was when people started making the switch to gas. Apparently, the balance between oil prices and gas prices in 1970 was such that people were motivated to leave oil and buy natural gas equipment. So, 1970's prices don't clearly seem like a big motivation to switch back to oil.

   5%
4. D

   Correct69% picked this

   The cost of equipment to heat homes with oil has fallen sharply, while the price of heating with oil has fallen below the

   Why this is right

   This helps us argue that a bunch of people might switch back to oil. 1. It's cheap to switch back, since the cost of oil equipment has fallen sharply. 2. It's financially beneficial to switch back, since right now it's cheaper to heat your home with oil than with natural gas

   Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   69%
5. E

   No Impact1% picked this

   The use of oil to heat homes has continued to decline, while the price of heating oil has

   The first fact almost strengthens. It seems to support the author's notion that people are switching to natural gas and not switching back to oil. The second fact, as we discussed with (C) isn't any clear incentive to prefer oil over natural gas. Why? Because in 1970, the price of oil was at 1970's oil prices (obviously), and people were motivated to switch to natural gas back then.

   1%