Logical Reasoning

PT107 · S3 · Q9 The official’s conclusion is most

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The local agricultural official gave the fruit growers of the District 10 Farmers’ Cooperative a new pesticide that they applied for a period of three years to their pear orchards in place of the pesticide they had formerly applied.

Conclusion

The new pesticide is more effective than the old pesticide, at least in the short term, in limiting the loss of fruit to insects.

Evidence

During the three years of using the new pesticide, the proportion of pears lost to insects was way less than during the previous three year period.

Evaluate

We have a Curious Comparison, , and the author's conclusion assumes a Causal Explanation -- the new pesticide is responsible.

We are trained to ask two separate questions: 1. could there be some Alternate Explanation for the Curious Fact? (why else might a lower % of pears have been lost over the last 3 years?)

2. how plausible is the Author's Explanation? (is there any more evidence that would help us believe that the new pesticide is the causal difference-maker?)

Goal

Since this is Strengthen, we would usually want a correct answer to rule out an Alternate Explanation (f.e., fruit loss to insects was not lower than before because there were just fewer insects around those years), or to boost the plausibility of the Author's Explanation (f.e. in the areas of the orchard where we didn't spray the new pesticide, we didn't see a lower proportion of pears lost).

But because this question stem is asking specifically about trees who didn't see a reduction in fruit due to insects, they are driving us specifically into the classic "No Cause, No Effect" plausibility-strengthener.

In order to strengthen the notion that the new pesticide is what caused the reduction in insect damage, we'd love to hear that trees that didn't have a reduction in insect damage weren't sprayed with the new pesticide.

9.

The official's conclusion is most strongly supported if which one of the following groups of trees did not show a reduction in losses of fruit to insects?

  1. peach trees grown in the

    Opposite

    If pear trees treated with the new pesticide didn't show a reduction in losses to insects, that would weaken the argument.

    11% picked this

  2. peach trees grown in the

    Opposite

    If pear trees treated with the new pesticide didn't show a reduction in losses to insects, that would weaken the argument.

    2% picked this

  3. Correct

    pear trees grown in the

    Why this is right

    The #1 way to Strengthen a causal argument is to increase its plausibility via a "Control Group" answer: things not exposed to the supposed Cause didn't experience the supposed Effect. If pear trees that were treated old instead of new didn't show a reduction in losses to insects, that's very strong evidence that the new pesticide really was the causal difference-maker for all those pear trees that did show a reduction in losses to insects.

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    69% picked this

  4. pear trees grown in a

    Unclear Impact

    Since this is a different neighborhood, there are all kinds of Alternate Explanations that could come into play. We have no idea how to use this data to inform our judgment of whether the new pesticide should be celebrated as the reason the pear trees in our neighborhood saw a reduction in insect damage.

    3% picked this

  5. pear trees grown in a

    Opposite

    If pear trees treated with the new pesticide didn't show a reduction in losses to insects, that would weaken the argument.

    14% picked this

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