Logical Reasoning

PT106 · S3 · Q7 Sam: In a recent survey, over 95

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Sam: In a recent survey, over 95 percent of people who purchased a Starlight automobile last year said they were highly satisfied with their purchase.

Sam's Conclusion

Starlight cars are remarkably free from manufacturing defects.

Sam's Evidence

If a car has a manufacturing defect in the first year of ownership, people who bought it won't be highly satisfied.

But 95% of Starlight purchases say they are highly satisfied.

Tiya's Response

Some manufacturing defects don't show up 'til year 3 or later.

Evaluate

Sam's 95% "highly satisfied" premise triggers the contrapositive of the conditional he presents.

That conditional outputs the conclusion that 95% of Starlight buyers didn't have a manufacturing defect in their first year of ownership.

However, Sam ventures onward to a further conclusion: Starlight cars are remarkably free from defects.

If 95% of recent Starlight buyers didn't have any manufacturing defects in their first year, does that show that these cars are remarkably free from defects?

Tiya is suggesting that No, that conclusion doesn't necessarily follow. The "jury's still out" on whether these recently purchased Starlight cars are free from defects, since defects sometimes don't surface until year 4 or later.

Goal

In the vernacular of Method questions, we'd probably be looking for something like,

7.

Which one of the following most accurately describes how Tiya's response is related to Sam's argument?

  1. It argues that Sam’s conclusion

    Opposite

    Tiya is pushing back against the conclusion, not arguing it's correct. She's saying, "Don't congratulate Starlight yet ... these cars haven't shown defects in year 1, but a lot of defects don't show up until year 4 or later."

    1% picked this

  2. It provides evidence indicating that

    Doesn't Dispute Evidence

    Tiya doesn't say that the 95% survey figure is misrepresentation of attitudes. Tiya is just saying that those attitudes may change in Year 4, if latent defects start to show up then. Most Method questions have a trap answer suggesting that the second person "denied the validity of Person 1's evidence", which has (almost?) never been right.

    1% picked this

  3. Correct

    It offers a consideration that

    Why this is right

    Sam's support is a survey that 95% of people didn't have a defect in their first year. Does that prove that these cars are free from defects? Not necessarily, Tiya says, offering the consideration that some defects don't know up until several years after purchase, so it's too soon to know what % of those cars are defect-free.

    Skill tested: Method · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    74% picked this

  4. It points out that Sam’s

    Unsupported - Circular Reasoning

    Tiya doesn't accuse Sam of a circular argument (that's what "presupposing the truth of your conclusion means). Sam's argument doesn't assume that "Starlights are very defect-free". It assumes that "95% is remarkably free" and that "if there wasn't a manufacturing flaw in the first year, then it's defect free".

    4% picked this

  5. It presents new information that

    Too Strong: implies false

    Tiya isn't trying to refute Sam's conclusion, just saying that it's premature. The Starlight cars may well turn out to be defect-free; Tiya is just saying we wouldn't be able to fully judge the conclusion yet.

    20% picked this

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