Logical Reasoning

PT104 · S1 · Q11 A local chemical plant produces

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A local chemical plant produces pesticides that can cause sterility in small mammals such as otters.

Conclusion (Therefore)

Pesticides are definitely contaminating the river.

Evidence

A local plant makes pesticides that can cause sterility in small mammals such as otters. Soon after the plant began operating, the incidence of sterility among the otters in a nearby river increased dramatically.

Evaluate

The author is trying to Explain a Curious Fact: Why did the incidence of sterility among local otters go up so much?

She takes one possible explanation: Maybe it's because of that new plant that started operating; they produce pesticides that can cause sterility in otters

and overconfidently concludes that this is the explanation: The pesticides are definitely contaminating the river

Goal

To match this famous Causal flaw, we would want at a minimum a) A curious fact b) A conclusion in which the author overconfidently is sure of one possible explanation for that fact

To match it more closely, the curious fact should be a chronological association:

The supposed effect started happening soon after the supposed cause started happening

11.

Which one of the following arguments contains a flaw in reasoning that is similar to one in the argument above?

  1. The bacteria that cause tetanus

    Bad Evidence Match Bad Conclusion Match

    There's no before/after curious fact in the evidence. The conclusion is not offering us an explanation for a curious fact. It's offering a predicted comparison. The flaw in this argument is that the conclusion compares horses to most other animals, but the evidence never told us whether most other animals also have the bacteria that cause tetanus living in their digestive tracts. So, the flaw here is Assuming a Difference, whereas the flaw in the original argument was Failing to Consider Alternate Explanations.

    2% picked this

  2. Correct

    A diet low in calcium

    Why this is right

    We identify a potential cause. This plant's pesticides can cause sterility. A low calcium diet can cause a drop in egg production. We show a before / after. When the plant started up, the otters soon got less sterile When the chickens went foraging, their egg production dropped We conclude that the possible cause is definitely the cause. The river where these otters swim is contaminated with those pesticides. The food the chickens foraged gave them a low calcium diet. And in both cases, the original argument and this argument are Failing to Consider Alternate Explanations.

    Skill tested: Parallel Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    89% picked this

  3. Animals that are undernourished are

    Bad Evidence Match

    We identify a potential cause. This plant's pesticides can cause sterility. Being undernourished can lead to infection. We show a before / after? When the plant started up, the otters soon got less sterile The animals in the largest zoo are not undernourished. This answer goes off the rails with that second ingredient. In order for it to match, it should have been describing something that had gotten an infection. Then it could conclude, that the thing that got the infection clearly / definitely was undernourished.

    3% picked this

  4. Apes are defined by having,

    Not Causal at All

    This is just about classifying some weird fossils. There's no cause/effect relationship identified in the evidence. There's no before/after relationship identified in the evidence. The conclusion isn't given us a causal storyline for how one thing caused another.

    6% picked this

  5. The only animal that could

    Valid Logic Bad Evidence Match

    The fact that the argument seems pretty valid already tells us this can't be a match. There is a causal claim in the evidence, but it's way stronger than what the original argument has: Pesticides can cause sterility in otters vs. Only a bear could cause this track If we had said, "ONLY pesticides can cause sterility in otters, then it wouldn't have been a flawed argument". So that's distinction is enough to kill this answer. There is also no before/after premise.

    1% picked this

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