Logical Reasoning

PT101 · S2 · Q19 In Australia the population that

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In Australia the population that is of driving age has grown larger over the last five years, but the annual number of traffic fatalities has declined.

Conclusion (this leads to conclusion)

Overall, the driving-age population of Australia consists of more skillful drivers now than five years ago.

Evidence

Over the last five years, the population that is of driving age has grown larger, but the annual number of traffic fatalities has declined.

Evaluate

The author is looking at a Curious Comparison and then positing a Causal Interpretation, so we can use our Explain a Curious Fact mindset.

Curious Fact ... why have traffic fatalities declined? Explanation ... drivers are more skillful.

We would weaken such an argument one of two ways. 1. (most commonly) suggest an Alternate Explanation for the curious fact 2. undermine the plausibility of the Author's Explanation

Goal

We're looking for answers to give us different reasons why traffic fatalities have declined (e.g. speed limits are lower / cars are safer / police are cracking down more on reckless driving)

or we want an answer to make it seem less likely that (e.g. the more skilled drivers are, the more dangerous risks they start taking)

19.

Each of the statements below, if true, weakens the argument EXCEPT:

  1. Three years ago, a mandatory

    Weakens (alternate explanation)

    This suggests that the real reason fatalities are declining is that people are wearing seat belts more than before.

    3% picked this

  2. Five years ago, Australia began

    Weakens (alternate explanation)

    This suggests that the real reason fatalities are declining is that fewer accidents are being caused by potholes and other adverse road conditions.

    8% picked this

  3. Because of increases in the

    Weakens (alternate explanation)

    This suggests that the real reason fatalities are declining is that people are just driving less than before.

    5% picked this

  4. The number of hospital emergency

    Weakens (alternate explanation)

    This suggests that the real reason fatalities are declining is that there are more people being saved from death by being shuttled to the nearest hospital emergency room.

    35% picked this

  5. Correct

    In response to an increase

    Why this is right

    This actually lends plausibility to the author's explanation of "more skillful drivers", since driver education would potentially lead to more skilled drivers. The correct answer doesn't need to strengthen, it just happens to. All it needs to do is not-weaken.

    Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    49% picked this

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