Logical Reasoning

PT9 · S2 · Q4 Data from satellite photographs

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Data from satellite photographs of the tropical rain forest in Melonia show that last year the deforestation rate of this environmentally sensitive zone was significantly lower than in previous years.

Conclusion

The Melonian government's increased efforts to halt the destruction of the tropical rain forest are proving effective.

Evidence

The deforestation rate was significantly lower last year than in previous years, according to satellite data.

The government spent millions of dollars last year enforcing laws against burning and cutting of the forest.

Evaluate

The argument suggests a causal relationship between the government's increased enforcement efforts and the reduction in deforestation, as evidenced by satellite data. This scenario fits the Explain Curious Fact pattern because the author is trying to explain the lower deforestation rate observed through satellite data.

Curious Fact

Why was the deforestation rate significantly lower last year than in previous years?

Author's Explanation

Increased government enforcement efforts aimed at halting forest destruction.

To undermine the government's claim, we can propose an Alternate Explanation for the observed drop in deforestation rates. We could also attack the plausibility of the claim that the government's enforcement efforts directly caused the reduced deforestation.

Goal

Let's find an answer that provides an alternate explanation for the reduced deforestation rate or challenges the effectiveness or impact of the government's enforcement efforts.

4.

Which one of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the government’s claim?

  1. Landowner opposition to the government’s

    No Impact

    The violent opposition from landowners, while a consequence of increased enforcement, doesn't directly undermine the claim that enforcement was effective in reducing deforestation.

    1% picked this

  2. Correct

    Rainfall during the usually dry

    Why this is right

    If the rainfall during the usual burning season was abnormally heavy, it could serve as an alternate explanation for the reduced deforestation rate. This means that the lower rate could be due to the natural factor of increased rain, which deterred burning, rather than the government's efforts.

    Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    68% picked this

  3. Government agents had to issue

    Opposite (if anything)

    If anything, this seems to boost the plausibility of the idea that the government's efforts are making a difference.

    2% picked this

  4. The inaccessibility of much of

    Weaker Impact

    This makes the government's evidence a little less robust / trustworthy, but we have no reason to be inherently distrustful of comparing satellite images of the rainforest today to those of the rainforest in the past. Corroborating the satellite data would strengthen the author's case, but a failure to corroborate the data doesn't do much to weaken it. The correct answer's alternate explanation for the observed change is a lot more impactful.

    22% picked this

  5. Much of the money that

    Unclear Impact

    If almost none of the government money was spent on enforcement, then it would undermine the plausibility that the government's efforts to stop deforestation are what caused the lower rate of deforestation. But this doesn't say anything that strong, just that "much" (i.e. a significant chunk) of the money went to research. This doesn't give us much reason to think that enforcement was underfunded.

    7% picked this

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