A distemper virus has caused two-thirds of the seal population in the North Sea to die since May 1988.
Conclusion (clearly / must)
The severe pollution of the North Sea waters must have weakened the immune system of the seals so they could no longer withstand the distemper virus.
Evidence
A distemper virus caused two-thirds of the seal population in the North Sea to die since May 1988.
The explanation for the deaths cannot just be the virus alone. There must be a reason the normally latent virus prevailed so suddenly.
Evaluate
This argument fits the Explain Curious Fact pattern. We have an observed phenomenon: two-thirds of the North Sea seal population dying due to a normally latent distemper virus. Our task is to determine the explanation for this sudden change.
Curious Fact
What caused the normally latent virus to become so deadly to the seals?
Author's Explanation
The severe pollution weakened the seals’ immune systems, allowing the virus to prevail.
The argument assumes there isn't an alternate explanation for why the virus suddenly affected the seals so dramatically. It also assumes the pollution weakening the immune systems is a plausible cause.
Goal
We'll want to seek an answer choice that either rules out an alternate explanation or affirms something needed for the plausibility of the author's explanation involving pollution.