Four randomly chosen market research

Answer choices

1. A

   Unsupported Comparison1% picked this

   It is more difficult to estimate the population of middle-sized cities than

   We think it's more difficult to estimate the population of a city whose population is changing than a city whose population is stable. The passage didn't present any distinction between middle sized and smaller sized cities.

   1%
2. B

   Unsupported Quality: accurate enough6% picked this

   Population estimates for rapidly growing cities can be accurate enough to be

   We know that population estimates are varying widely for the rapidly growing city. Those estimates can't all be correct, since they vary widely. So why should we think that such an estimate "can be accurate enough to be useful"?

   6%
3. C

   Too Strong: does not fluctuate4% picked this

   The rate of change in population of rapidly growing cities does

   If something "does not fluctuate" that means it stays the same forever. We don't have any way to support the extreme claim that the rate of change of population in quickly growing cities stays the same forever (in fact, if the rate of change did stay the same, then it would be easy for these companies to make a prediction. The fact that they couldn't settle on a prediction suggests the opposite of this answer).

   4%
4. D

   Correct86% picked this

   The market research companies are likely to be equally reliable in estimating the population

   Why this is right

   This is pretty strong, but not all the way extreme: "likely to be equally reliable". Ultimately, it's a loose answer but the best available. We can support this since when it came to the stable cities, the four estimates varied little from company to company. We can say that they're likely to be equally reliable since they're making the same prediction. That doesn't mean that they'll be reliable. It means that their reliability will be comparable. If the estimates are correct, then these companies all seem to be reliable. If the estimate are 25% too high, then these companies are all slightly unreliable. But since their estimates of stable cities were the same, we would expect them to be similar when it comes to the reliability of their estimate.

   Skill tested: Most Supported · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   86%
5. E

   Unsupported Comparison: future > current3% picked this

   Estimates of a city’s future population are likely to be more accurate than are estimates of

   This comparison was not only not made, but it defies common sense. It's always going to be easier to measure a current population accurately than it would be to accurately estimate the future.

   3%