Logical Reasoning

PT5 · S1 · Q14 A survey of alumni of

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A survey of alumni of the class of 1960 at Aurora University yielded puzzling results.

Your task

Break the argument into its conclusion and evidence, then do exactly what the question stem asks with that structure.

Common trap

Answers that sound relevant to the topic but don't connect to the argument's actual reasoning.

Winning move

Predict what a right answer must do, then test each choice against the conclusion-evidence gap.

14.

Which one of the following most helps account for the apparent contradiction above?

  1. Correct

    A disproportionately large number of

    Why this is right

    When we see surveys, we want to stay aware of the possibility of response bias. One of the options we came up with with is that people who responded really were in the top quarter and were just more likely to respond than other people in the class. They would be disproportionately represented in the survey. Let's use actual numbers to draw this out with a class of 200. Class of '60 (25% top ranked): Total: 200 students Top Quarter: 50 students Survey (50% top ranked): Total: 100 students Top Quarter: 50 students In the whole class, there were 150 lower ranked students. In the survey, there were only 50 who responded. If all of the top ranked students responded to the survey, they could have been telling the truth but would take up a bigger proportion in the survey than in the original class.

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    76% picked this

  2. Few, if any, respondents were

    Opposite

    We could have explained the results by saying that most of the respondents were mistaken or lying. This actually strengthens the paradox.

    3% picked this

  3. Not all the alumni who

    Too weak: Not all

    Not all can be translated to at least one. Translating the answer choice, it says, "At least one alumni who was in the top quarter did not respond." This would deepen the paradox because it would be more than the 50% that responded to the survey exist.

    6% picked this

  4. Almost all of the alumni

    Opposite

    This deepens the paradox by taking away the option that the survey population was not representative of the class.

    2% picked this

  5. Academic rank at Aurora University

    Out of Scope

    We don't care about how they decide rank, just that it was disproportionately represented.

    13% picked this

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