Physician: The patient is suffering either from disease X or else from disease Y, but there is no available test for distinguishing X from Y. Therefore, since there is an effective treatment for Y but no treatment for X, we must act on the assumption that the patient has a case of Y.
Premise
The patient has either disease X or disease Y, but there is no test to distinguish them. There is an effective treatment for Y but no treatment for X.
Conclusion
We must act on the assumption that the patient has Y.
Evaluate
The reasoning: success (curing the patient) is only possible if it is Y (since X has no treatment). So we proceed as if Y is the case — because that is the only path on which our action can succeed. The principle: when success requires a favorable circumstance, assume the favorable circumstance.
Goal
Find the principle: when success is only possible under a favorable (uncontrollable) circumstance, base the strategy on the assumption that the circumstance is favorable.