Logical Reasoning

PT18 · S4 · Q5 The ends of modern centuries have been

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The ends of modern centuries have been greeted with both apocalyptic anxieties and utopian fantasies.

Conclusion

It's not surprising to learn that people are usually wrong, towards the end of a century, when they're anticipating a forthcoming apocalypse or utopia.

Evidence

The end of a century isn't an inherently special time -- it's just a pretty number on one possible calendar. (Pretty arbitrary)

Evaluate

This is a very unusual question stem. It's asking us to pick an answer that would have the same logical force as the actual premise.

So we don't really need to think about the gap between the evidence and the conclusion.

We can just think of the conclusion and see if any answer supports it.

Goal

Since we want this to have the same logical force, it should give us the same feeling -- "Hey, people. We're not shocked that the turn of the century didn't result in a utopia or an apocalypse. [The end of a century is just some arbitrary moment]

5.

Which one of the following, if true, could be substituted for the reason cited above while still preserving the force of the argument?

  1. It is logically impossible for

    Weak Support

    This definitely doesn't have the same sentiment of [the turn of the century is just any other random day on an arbitrary calendar]. This claim would support a conclusion saying, "It's not surprising that some of these reactions have consistently proven to be wrong." Both sides can't be simultaneously right if it's logically impossible for them to both be correct. But the author's actual conclusion isn't "I can see why they can't both be right", it's "I can see why they are both wrong".

    6% picked this

  2. What is a utopian fantasy

    No Impact

    This answer actually makes it possible that both the apocalypse and the utopia people could simultaneously have their reaction to the end of the century validated. It's not giving us a reason why "BOTH groups are likely to be disappointed when the turn of the century doesn't bring about utopia / apocalypse."

    10% picked this

  3. Correct

    The number system based on

    Why this is right

    This has the same sentiment of [the turn of the century is just any other random day on an arbitrary calendar]. After all, the base 10 number system is an arbitrary one. If we went base 12 like the Egyptians, then we might find every 144th year a special year.

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    72% picked this

  4. The firm expectation that something

    Different Logical Force

    It seems like this answer actually does strengthen, but in a different way. This answer is saying, "you guys don't end up getting the utopia / apocalypse that you're expecting, because when you're so convinced it's coming you actually spoil it from happening." The original argument was saying, "you guys don't end up getting the utopia / apocalypse that you're expecting, because the calendar we happen to go off of is totally arbitrary, so the year 1900 or 2000 in some made up numerical count doesn't represent some special moment in history."

    8% picked this

  5. Since a century far exceeds

    Different Logical Force

    Like (D), this does help strengthen, but not in a similar way to the original premise. This answer is saying, "you guys don't end up getting the utopia / apocalypse that you're expecting, because this disappointment happens at the end of every century, but those people don't live long enough to warn the suckers at the end of the next century." And the original premise (and correct answer) are saying, "You don't get the crazy transformation you're expecting because the calendar we use is a totally arbitrary way of keeping track of time, so there's nothing inherently special about the turn of a century".

    4% picked this

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