Logical Reasoning

PT17 · S2 · Q25 S: It would be premature to act

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S: It would be premature to act to halt the threatened “global warming trend,” since that alleged trend might not be real.

S's Conclusion

It would be premature to act against global warming.

S's Intermediate Conclusion (since)

Global warming might not be a real thing.

S's Intermediate Conclusion (so)

The global warming predictions can't be based on firm evidence.

S's Evidence (after all)

Scientists disagree about it: some predict more than twice as much warming as others.

W's Counter

Scientists don't argue over accepted ideas (just unknown stuff). When it comes to accepted ideas, the International Science Council says there is consensus among reputable investigators that global warming next century will be 1.5° to 4.5°C.

Evaluate

This doesn't appear to be doing any of the Big 3 Method Moves (Analogies, Faulty Implications, Alternatives).

W seems to be clarifying that scientists may disagree about the magnitude of the global warming that's to come, but they agree that global warming is coming.

I don't have a formulaic term in mind to describe this move. The response is essentially saying,

25.

W’s rejoinder proceeds by

  1. denying the existence of the

    Bad Description

    W never denies that scientists disagree. W says their opinions of warming vary from 1.5° to 4.5°C, so W acknowledges some predictions are over twice as high as others.

    8% picked this

  2. accepting S’s conclusion while disputing

    Bad Description

    S concluded it would be premature to act on global warming. W cites consensus among reputable investigators that significant warming will occur over the next century, which directly opposes S's conclusion. W is rejecting S's conclusion.

    8% picked this

  3. relying on authorities whose views

    Bad Description

    S did not cite any specific authorities. S referred to "scientists" generally and pointed to the spread in their predictions. W cites authorities who say "avg global warming will be from 1.5º to 4.5º". S cites people who disagree about how much warming there will be. Those are compatible, not conflicting. There could be some people who think it's closer to 4.5º and others who think it's closer to 2.0º. That harmonizes with W's cited claim.

    20% picked this

  4. Correct

    putting disagreements cited by S

    Why this is right

    This makes sense. S cited the disagreements between scientists when it comes to how much global warming there will be. W is acknowledging that disagreement, but couching in terms of a broader agreement that global warming is going to happen, it's only a question of how much. S wanted the dissent between scientists to mean that the whole global warming theory is on shaky footing. W is saying, "whoa, there's no dissent when it comes to the idea that global warming is happening. That's a boring, accepted idea to scientists. They'd rather argue with each other about what isn't known, which is how much warming there will be. The dissent is about the relative magnitude of the trend, not about whether or not the trend is real."

    Skill tested: Method · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    61% picked this

  5. reasoning in a circle by

    Bad Description

    Circular reasoning would mean W assumes the conclusion as a premise, or accepts evidence only because it confirms a foregone conclusion. There's never been a Method question where the correct answer was a Famous Flaw (maybe one day there will be). W doesn't provide a circular argument, where the premise just restates or assumes the conclusion. W doesn't even have an explicit conclusion. W just cites a very respectable piece of evidence.

    2% picked this

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