Logical Reasoning

PT17 · S2 · Q14 Between 1977 and 1987, the country

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Between 1977 and 1987, the country of Ravonia lost about 12,000 jobs in logging and wood processing, representing a 15 percent decrease in employment in the country’s timber industry.

Given that ....

Between 1977 and 1987, the amount of wood taken from the forests of Ravonia increased by 10%.

How can it be that ...

During that timeframe the country lost about 12,000 jobs in logging and wood processing, representing a 15% decrease in employment in the country's timber industry?

Evaluate

Maybe we're taking wood for a purpose that has nothing to do with the timber industry's normal operations, so that wood being removed isn't going to normal timber processing places; it's going elsewhere.

Maybe we don't need as many humans anymore to take a given quantity of wood out of the forest (i.e. maybe we're taking out more wood but using machines/robots, so we can lay-off a bunch of timber workers).

Maybe from 1977-1982, they chopped down a ton of wood, then they fired all those people, and the remaining timber workers just had to drag the chopped own wood out of the forest from 1982-1987? (i.e. maybe the wood chopping happened early on in that timeframe and the layoffs happened on the backend)

Goal

We need a story for how we could be increasing the amount of wood we're taking from forests but decreasing the number of jobs relating to logging and wood processing.

14.

Which one of the following, if true, most helps to resolve the apparent paradox?

  1. Not since the 1950’s has

    No Impact: most important

    We don't care about where timber ranks among Ravonia's industries. We're just trying to figure why, in the same decade, the amount of wood withdrawn went up and the amount of wood-jobs went down.

    1% picked this

  2. Between 1977 and 1987, the

    Deepens Paradox

    The fact that number of acres of timberland fell would seem to mean that they were cutting down trees at a faster rate than new trees were growing back. If the amount of wood taken from forests increases by 10%, that could coincide with there being fewer total acres of timber left. But this answer does nothing to explain why 12,000 jobs were lost in timber, even while demand for wood products was increasing!

    28% picked this

  3. Correct

    Since 1977, a growing proportion

    Why this is right

    This is actually similar to one of our predictions: Maybe we're taking wood for a purpose that has nothing to do with the timber industry's normal operations, so that wood being removed isn't going to normal timber processing places; it's going elsewhere. This is saying that more and more wood gets shipped out of the country without being processed first. That helps us understand how we could be taking more wood out of the forest, but not needing as many employees involved in wood processing. It's because we're not processing that wood in Ravonia. The countries that are importing this Ravonian wood will process the wood in their country. This would be analogous to a country extracting more oil from the ground, but exporting it as crude, unrefined oil to other countries, where it will be refined. The country extracting more oil from the ground could potentially fire a bunch of oil refinery personnel because the oil isn't being refined within this nation's borders.

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    65% picked this

  4. Since 1977, domestic sales of

    No Impact / Deepens Paradox, if anything

    We don't really care whether domestic sales are increasing more than international sales, or vice versa. Either way, domestic and international sales of wood and wood products are increasing. That matches the background fact about the amount of wood being taken from forests going up by 10%. But that does nothing to explain (and even makes more surprising) the fact that so many people in the the timber industry lost their jobs, even while sales of wood and wood products are increasing across the board.

    2% picked this

  5. In 1977, overall unemployment in

    No Impact

    Because this answer is about overall unemployment, not specifically unemployment within the timber industry, it seems unlikely to be sharp enough to give us any clarity about what's going on here. If unemployment overall in the country is going up, that aligns with the fact that the timber industry saw a 15% decrease in employment. However, the decrease in the timber industry's employment force is still disproportionately large. The country overall didn't see employment decrease by 15%, just by 5%. So we would still need an "extra" explanation for why the timber industry is doing particularly bad when it comes to job loss. But more importantly is that this answer doesn't do anything to help us understand how/why we're extracting 10% more wood with 15% fewer wood workers.

    3% picked this

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