Logical Reasoning

PT159 · S3 · Q12 When the annual period of daylight saving time begins

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When the annual period of daylight saving time begins, and clocks are set forward one hour, many people lose an hour of sleep.

Conclusion (therefore)

Sleep deprivation is responsible for the spike in traffic accidents following daylight savings.

Evidence

The day after the clocks switch on daylight savings, there are 7% more traffic accidents than average.

Evaluate

We've got comparative evidence (7% greater) and a causal conclusion (responsible for). Those are the ingredients of an Explain Curious Fact style argument.

We can Strengthen that kind of argument by ruling out an alternate explanation for the curious fact or by increasing the plausibility of the author's hypothesis.

He's blaming the uptick in accidents on people being sleep deprived, but could there be an alternate explanation?

Maybe the reason for more accidents isn't that people are sleep deprived but that they're running late! They woke up and realized it's already an hour later than they thought, so they're already running late for wherever they need to go, and thus they're driving more aggressively than usual trying to make up time.

Goal

Look for an answer undermining the idea that the uptick in accidents is caused by people running late.

Or look for an answer making it more plausible that sleep deprivation is the culprit. We know Strengthen questions are more likely to deal with the plausibility of the author's explanation (whereas all other question types are more likely to deal with alternate explanations).

12.

Which one of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?

  1. Many people forget to set

    Opposite Impact

    This weakens by providing the alternate explanation we were considering: there are more accidents because people are running late and thus driving aggressively.

    8% picked this

  2. Traffic accidents are less common

    Irrelevant Comparison (spring vs. winter)

    This argument doesn't care in any way whether accidents are higher in spring vs. winter. Winter presumably will have more accidents because of worse road conditions. But this argument is only saying that the day after daylight savings begins has more accidents than is average for that time of year. It's comparing one specific spring day to other spring days.

    4% picked this

  3. The traffic accidents that occur

    Irrelevant Comparison

    The curious fact the author is trying to explain is only about the incidence of accidents, i.e. the number of accidents. The severity of the accidents is irrelevant here.

    2% picked this

  4. Correct

    The higher incidence of accidents

    Why this is right

    This helps boost the plausibility of the author's hypothesis that sleep deprivation is causing an uptick in accidents. After all, the uptick mostly happens later in the day, when drowsiness would be most pronounced. That makes it more likely that the accidents are causally connected to drowsiness.

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    83% picked this

  5. The effects of sleep deprivation

    Unclear Impact

    It's hard to know what impact this answer would have without knowing whether the accident rate stays elevated for the next few days after daylight savings begins. If it does, then this answer would strengthen. If it doesn't, then this answer would weaken.

    4% picked this

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