CEO: While we only have

Answer choices

1. A

   Correct88% picked this

   The CEO’s company typically has its highest monthly sales of the year during the last 3

   Why this is right

   This helps us think that the remaining 3 months will be average or better. Since they are typically the juiciest months of the year, they will probably be at least as good as the last 9 months. What this question is testing is seasonal variation of businesses and how that could potentially lead to distorted averages. Let's say a florist was averaging $5000 a month last year, earning $60,000 for the year. They might say, "hey, this year we made $20,000 in the first two months. We're averaging $10,000 per month, so we're gonna make $120,000 this year!" Well it might be that last year they also made $20,000 in the first two months. After all, the second month of the year includes Valentine's Day, the holiday when florists make more money than at any other time during the year. If a florist looked at their monthly average after Jan/Feb and then extrapolated that to the rest of the year, they might be grossly overestimating how much money they'll bring in, since the rest of the months of the year are way worse than Jan/Feb are. Similarly, we could wonder with this argument whether the CEO's company usually has really low numbers during the last 3 months of the year. If so, she might be cherry-picking the busy 9 months to brag to her stockholders that their monthly average is way better than last year's monthly average. But that would be because last year's monthly average is weighed down by the crappy final three months, while the 9-month average this year is only averaging together the "good" months. This answer choice is ruling out that sort of objection, by saying, "Nah, the CEO isn't making a flattering monthly average by calculating the 9 busiest months of the year and leaving off the 3 worst performing months. To the contrary, the best is yet to come."

   Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   88%
2. B

   No Impact0% picked this

   The quality of the products sold by the CEO’s company has always been considered to

   Whether the quality was perceived to be high, medium, low, it wouldn't change our understanding of the fact that they are currently on pace to sell more than last year. The only gap in our assessment of whether they will end up selling more than last year is what to expect out of these final 3 months.

   0%
3. C

   Weakens, if anything0% picked this

   The CEO has a strong incentive to highlight any good news regarding the company and

   This doesn't really weaken, but it insinuates the type of story we were talking about in choice (A), in which the CEO chooses to tout the monthly average now at the 9 month mark, rather than waiting for the year to finish. She might be taking advantage of her knowledge that the last 3 months are underperforming months, so her monthly average will look like better news if she tabulates it from the 9 better months.

   0%
4. D

   Too Weak8% picked this

   The CEO’s company started a new advertising campaign at the beginning of this year that has proved

   This isn't nothing, but since this ad campaign is now 9 months old, it's unlikely that it's still having much effect on consumer habits (common sense tells us that ad campaigns probably have the most effect in the first couple months of their existence). In order for this to strengthen, we'd have to assume that the ad campaign will keep us holding steady for the last 3 months, but the answer specifies that it's been unusually effective so far, so we're not expecting its success / effectiveness to continue.

   8%
5. E

   Too Weak3% picked this

   Several other companies who sell products similar to those sold by the CEO’s company have also reported that this year’s monthly sales averages so

   This also seems to strengthen somewhat, since it suggests that the overall market for whatever products this company sells is a product with high demand right now. Ultimately, (D) and (E) just don't do as much to strengthen because of how important those final 3 months are to our assessment of how the year will turn out. Both of these somewhat increase the plausibility that things will hold steady over the final 3 months, but neither of them speak to the final 3 months specifically, so they are less compelling than (A) is.

   3%