Logical Reasoning

PT155 · S2 · Q1 CEO: While we only have

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CEO: While we only have the sales reports for the first 9 months of this year, I feel confident in concluding that this will be a good year for us in terms of sales.

Conclusion

This will be a good year for us in terms of sales.

Evidence

For the first 9 months of the year, our monthly sales average has been $5 million higher than our monthly sales average for the past 5 years.

Evaluate

When we do Strengthen questions, we still think about how to object to the argument since so many correct answers are essentially ruling out objections.

Given that the monthly sales average for the first 9 months of this year have been great, how could it still turn out to be a not-good year in sales?

It seems like the only way the year could end up bad at this point is if the last 3 months are worse than usual (offsetting the fact that the first 9 months were better than usual).

Goal

Look for an answer helping us to believe that the last 3 months will be average or better.

Which one of the following, if true, most strengthens the CEO’s argument?

Correct
The CEO’s company typically has
Why this is right
This helps us think that the remaining 3 months will be average or better. Since they are typically the juiciest months of the year, they will probably be at least as good as the last 9 months. What this question is testing is seasonal variation of businesses and how that could potentially lead to distorted averages. Let's say a florist was averaging $5000 a month last year, earning $60,000 for the year. They might say, "hey, this year we made $20,000 in the first two months. We're averaging $10,000 per month, so we're gonna make $120,000 this year!" Well it might be that last year they also made $20,000 in the first two months. After all, the second month of the year includes Valentine's Day, the holiday when florists make more money than at any other time during the year. If a florist looked at their monthly average after Jan/Feb and then extrapolated that to the rest of the year, they might be grossly overestimating how much money they'll bring in, since the rest of the months of the year are way worse than Jan/Feb are. Similarly, we could wonder with this argument whether the CEO's company usually has really low numbers during the last 3 months of the year. If so, she might be cherry-picking the busy 9 months to brag to her stockholders that their monthly average is way better than last year's monthly average. But that would be because last year's monthly average is weighed down by the crappy final three months, while the 9-month average this year is only averaging together the "good" months. This answer choice is ruling out that sort of objection, by saying, "Nah, the CEO isn't making a flattering monthly average by calculating the 9 busiest months of the year and leaving off the 3 worst performing months. To the contrary, the best is yet to come."
Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.
88% picked this
The quality of the products
No Impact
Whether the quality was perceived to be high, medium, low, it wouldn't change our understanding of the fact that they are currently on pace to sell more than last year. The only gap in our assessment of whether they will end up selling more than last year is what to expect out of these final 3 months.
0% picked this
The CEO has a strong
Weakens, if anything
This doesn't really weaken, but it insinuates the type of story we were talking about in choice (A), in which the CEO chooses to tout the monthly average now at the 9 month mark, rather than waiting for the year to finish. She might be taking advantage of her knowledge that the last 3 months are underperforming months, so her monthly average will look like better news if she tabulates it from the 9 better months.
0% picked this
The CEO’s company started a
Too Weak
This isn't nothing, but since this ad campaign is now 9 months old, it's unlikely that it's still having much effect on consumer habits (common sense tells us that ad campaigns probably have the most effect in the first couple months of their existence). In order for this to strengthen, we'd have to assume that the ad campaign will keep us holding steady for the last 3 months, but the answer specifies that it's been unusually effective so far, so we're not expecting its success / effectiveness to continue.
8% picked this
Several other companies who sell
Too Weak
This also seems to strengthen somewhat, since it suggests that the overall market for whatever products this company sells is a product with high demand right now. Ultimately, (D) and (E) just don't do as much to strengthen because of how important those final 3 months are to our assessment of how the year will turn out. Both of these somewhat increase the plausibility that things will hold steady over the final 3 months, but neither of them speak to the final 3 months specifically, so they are less compelling than (A) is.
3% picked this

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