Logical Reasoning

PT149 · S1 · Q1 The mayoral race in Bensburg

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The mayoral race in Bensburg is a choice between Chu, a prodevelopment candidate, and Lewis, who favors placing greater limits on development.

Conclusion (Thus)

Chu will probably defeat Lewis.

Evidence

The election is between Chu and Lewis.

Chu is a prodevelopment candidate, whereas Lewis favors placing limits on development.

Prodevelopment candidates have won in the last six mayoral elections.

Evaluate

Given that ... prodevelopment candidates have won the last six elections and that ... Chu is more pro-development than Lewis

How could we argue that ... Chu will probably not defeat Lewis?

Maybe there's something super toxic about Chu that outweighs the positive that he's more prodevelopment than Lewis.

Maybe something has changed in this election cycle that would make the electorate less likely to vote for a prodevelopment candidate. The argument is assuming, , failing to consider that maybe Past ≠ Present.

Maybe it's a total coincidence that the last six winners were prodevelopment. Maybe they won in spite of being pro-development, not because of it.

Goal

Find any answer that would allow us to diminish the author's evidence or to argue that Chu is not likely to win this election.

1.

Which one of the following statements, if true, most weakens the argument?

  1. Lewis has extensive experience in

    Strengthens, if anything

    This potentially says something negative about Lewis (she's running for local mayoral office but doesn't have much experience in city politics). Saying something negative about Lewis would strengthen. In general, though, answers like this that are not comparative have unclear impact when we're judging a comparison. After all, for all we know Chu is also inexperienced in city politics.

    0% picked this

  2. Prodevelopment mayoral candidates in Bensburg

    Strengthens, if anything

    This would help the author's case that a prodevelopment candidate is probably going to win: 1. such a candidate has won the last six elections 2. such a candidate is better funded (which makes winning elections easier)

    1% picked this

  3. Correct

    Bensburg is facing serious new

    Why this is right

    This shows us that Past ≠ Present, and it helps us to counterargue that Chu is not likely to win this election. Sure, in the past, voters have gone for the prodevelopment candidate, but it doesn't sound like the electorate is going to be as pro-development in this cycle. After all, there are serious new problems that most voters attribute to too much development. All those modifiers are important for giving this the punching strength we want. These problems didn't apply to past election cycles. And they are serious and the majority of voters think that development is to blame. So the candidacy of Lewis, who wants to place some limits on development, is starting to sound pretty appetizing to these local voters.

    Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    92% picked this

  4. Lewis once worked as an

    No Impact

    This is too weak of a sentiment to move the needle. Just because she worked as an aide to a prodevelopment mayor doesn't change the fact that Lewis the candidate is running on a platform of limiting development.

    2% picked this

  5. Chu was not thought of

    No Impact

    This is too weak of a sentiment to move the needle. Just because Chu wasn't previously thought of as prodevelopment doesn't change the fact that Chu the candidate is running on a platform of favoring development.

    5% picked this

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