Sea creatures have rarely, if ever, wreaked ecological havoc in a new habitat, unless they have been able to survive in that habitat after
This answer is very tempting, since the author is assuming if these sea creatures they are less likely to can't survive in the → wreak havoc than other's habitat currently is the case This answer looks like a contrapositive of that, sorta: wasn't the case that a usually would not sea creature survived → wreak havoc in in new habitat after the new habitat having been dumped by a ship The easiest way to distance ourselves from this is to notice that it's addressing a past tense historical fact. The author isn't assuming anything about the past. She's pitching us a supposedly viable plan we could try in the future, so her assumptions are about what would be true in the hypothetical world in which we tried her plan. This answer is about what has been true in the actual world we live in. If we fixed the tense (sea creatures will rarely, if ever, wreak havoc .... ), this answer still would struggle. When we negate it, we get this: Sea creatures have frequently wreaked ecological havoc in a new habitat, without the backstory of surviving in the new habitat after having been deposited there by ships. In simpler terms, the negation would be saying, "Sea creatures have frequently messed up a new habitat for a reason separate from the problem the author is trying to solve". Okay, would that weaken the argument? No, because the author isn't saying her midocean solution will prevent all or most cases of sea creatures messing up a new habitat they're in. She's just saying it's a viable way to address the part of that problem caused by ships dumping their ballast water.