Logical Reasoning

PT144 · S3 · Q17 Meteorologist: Heavy downpours

A free, expert breakdown of this official LSAT Logical Reasoning question.

  • Save & drill this skill — build targeted practice sets from questions like this one

  • Video walkthroughs — watch every question solved step by step

  • 81 official LSATs — as questions, timed sections & full-length tests

Start practicing free

Meteorologist: Heavy downpours are likely to become more frequent if Earth’s atmosphere becomes significantly warmer.

Conclusion

If Earth's atmosphere becomes significantly warmer, heavy rains are likely to become more frequent.

Evidence

If Earth's atmosphere becomes warm, it heats the oceans; water evaporates faster; the water vapor forms clouds more quickly; there's also more moisture in the atmosphere, so there are larger clouds; and larger clouds are more likely to result in heavy rains.

Evaluate

Whenever we read Role or Main Conclusion, we prime our brain before reading the paragraph with a reminder that usually the Conclusion will be found earlier than the Evidence (frequently it's the first claim, or it's the first claim after a pivot).

Conclusions are supposed to be opinions supported by facts (and sometimes supported by opinions). Everything after the first sentence is a science fact, so it's all disqualified from being a conclusion.

Only the first sentence is an opinion, because it's a prediction. Saying what will happen in the future is always implicitly an opinion.

Besides being an opinion, we check to see whether our Conclusion is supported by explicit claims.

In this case, the first sentence is the Umbrella Claim (pun intended) beneath which all the rest of the ideas go.

Everything after the first sentence was a causal chain trying help us see how warmer atmosphere would connect to more frequent heavy rains.

Goal

We know the final sentence was part of the Support for the Main Conclusion (everything after the first sentence was support for the conclusion).

Whether it was an Intermediate Conclusion or just a Premise, we can wait to litigate. Let's see if any answer choices care to press on that before we commit any mental energy to it. We know it supports the first sentence's main conclusion.

17.

Which one of the following most accurately describes the role played in the meteorologist's argument by the claim that, in general, as water vapor in larger clouds condenses, heavier downpours are more likely to result?

  1. It is the only conclusion

    Not Main Conclusion

    If something is the only conclusion, then it's the Main Conclusion. Our Main Conclusion is in the first sentence. For the same reason that they like to stash the conclusion in the first sentence (on Role and Main Conclusion) they like to pretend in some trap answer that the final claim was the conclusion. They know students have a bias towards thinking the last claim is automatically the conclusion (or the safest guess when they're confused).

    2% picked this

  2. It is the conclusion of

    Not Main Conclusion

    The first sentence is the Main Conclusion. The sentence we're being asked about was part of the support for how we make sense of the prediction that "warmer atmosphere will mean more frequent heavy rains".

    7% picked this

  3. It is a statement that

    Not Intermediate Conclusion

    Okay, now we're being pressed on whether to call this a Premise or to call it an Intermediate Conclusion (this answer choice is referring to an Intermediate Conclusion). How do we differentiate? We just ask ourselves, "Is there support for this idea? Why should we believe this idea?" If we can point to an explicit supporting claim then it's an Intermediate Conclusion. If not, then it's a premise. Why should we believe that "larger clouds are more likely to result in heavier downpours"? They didn't give us a reason. Presumably, larger clouds are more likely to lead to heavier downpours because larger clouds have more rain to dump on the area below them. Tipping over a huge bucket of water would create a heavier downpour than tipping over a smaller bucket of water. The "support" for this claim is self-justifying common sense. We're making sense of why it would be true because it makes common sense that a larger cloud of water vapor would result in heavier rain. Since no explicit support was actually provided for this last sentence, we can't call it an Intermediate Conclusion. No reasons were offered in support of why we should believe this final claim. This final claim just linked up with a bunch of other cause/effect pairs to bring us the story in the main conclusion about warmer atmospheres leading to heavier downpours.

    26% picked this

  4. Correct

    It is used to support

    Why this is right

    This answer choice is just saying the final sentence was a Premise, which is what it was. The only conclusion is the first sentence of the paragraph. Why should we believe ... warmer atmosphere will lead to more heavy downpours? Because, 1. warm atmosphere leads to faster evaporation and holds more moisture. 2. In a warm atmosphere rain clouds form more quickly. 3. When there's more moisture in a rain cloud (when it's larger), heavier downpours are more likely to result. If we ask ourselves, "Why should we believe #1 ... ?" there's no answer provided. Same for #2 and #3. The only claim supported was the first sentence.

    Skill tested: Role · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    54% picked this

  5. It provides a causal explanation

    It Does Provide Support

    This last sentence is definitely providing support. Without the last sentence, we wouldn't have tied the story back to "heavier downpours" from the conclusion. That would be the easiest way to eliminate this answer. The first half of the answer is also inaccurate, but more subtly so. The last sentence contributes to a causal explanation of the conclusion, but it doesn't in and of itself provide a causal explanation of the conclusion.

    11% picked this

Continue the review in LSAT Lab

Save this question, watch the video walkthrough, and drill similar questions in your LSAT Lab account.

Save and practice this skill
LSAT Lab

Turn this review into a targeted study plan.

Save this question, drill more like it, watch the video walkthrough, and track your progress in your LSAT Lab account.

Start practicing free