Logical Reasoning

PT144 · S3 · Q13 The television network's advertisement

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The television network’s advertisement for its new medical drama grossly misrepresents what that program is like.

Conclusion

The ad they ran won't attract recurring viewers as well as the ad the producers favored would have.

Evidence

The ad they ran totally misrepresents what the show is like. People who tune in to the first episode with false expectations will be unlikely to watch subsequent episodes.

Evaluate

This argument has both Comparison issues and a Missing Link. We're given a conditional rule that says: tune in 1st ep w/ false expectations → ~likely keep watch

Was it established that people will be tuning into the 1st episode with false expectations?

No. The author is just assuming that because the ad grossly misrepresents the show, people will tune in with false expectations.

Additionally, say that we stipulate,

Would that prove that this ad was less effective at getting recurring viewers than would have been the other ad?

Not necessarily -- the author is Assuming a Difference. She's assuming that had they gone with the producers' ad, then viewers wouldn't be coming to the first episode with false expectations.

Goal

The missing link: or the missing part of the comparison: .

13.

The argument relies on which one of the following assumptions?

  1. Most viewers who tune in

    Too Strong/Specific: most

    The word "most" has been wrong 99% of the time it's appeared in Necessary Assumption. Why does the author need to assume it's 51% of viewers? Would 49% (the negation) be so different? Of course not. Since the correct answer on necessary assumption, when negated, badly weakens the argument, "most" is basically always wrong. It'll always mean you're just choosing between 51% and 49%, and it's very unlikely that that tiny distinction would ever make much impact.

    20% picked this

  2. Correct

    The advertisement that the program's

    Why this is right

    If we negate this, it turns into an objection: the producers' ad also grossly misrepresented the program If that's the case, then the author's argument is nonexistent. The only negative thing she mentioned about the ad that did run was that it grossly misrepresented. If that's true of the alternative, then she has no grounds (that she's made us aware of) for favoring the alternative.

    Skill tested: Necessary Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    63% picked this

  3. Most people who tune in

    Too Strong / Specific: most

    The author is probably assuming that most people who tune in as a result of the network's ad will end up not being a loyal viewer, since she thinks they will have a false impression and that they are thus likely to not keep watching. If you argue, "Because he's Irish, he likely is pale", then you're assuming that "most Irish are pale". But she doesn't need to assume anything about Most "long time viewers". It doesn't hurt her argument at all if most of the long time viewers came to the show as a result of that ad. Suppose: 100 people came from ad, and only 40 stayed on as regular viewers while 10 people came not because of ad, and they all stayed on as regular viewers. Most of the people who became regular viewers did see episode 1 as a result of the ad. But this doesn't weaken the author's argument. She could still say "People who say the ad only had a 40% conversion rate, whereas people who didn't see the ad had a 100% conversion rate. See? I told you that ad sucked and that the other one was better."

    7% picked this

  4. If the advertisement that the

    Too Strong: almost all

    The author doesn't need to assume that the other ad would have had an "almost all" conversion rate (over 90%). She only needs to assume that the other ad would have had a better conversion rate than the ad that ran.

    7% picked this

  5. Most people who become loyal

    Too Strong / Specific: most

    Most is almost always wrong on Necessary Assumption. What difference does it make to the author's argument if 51% of loyal viewer see the first episode vs. 49% of loyal viewers see the first episode? None. So the author doesn't need to assume anything above this arbitrary 50% threshold.

    3% picked this

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