Amateur gardeners who plant based on the phases of the moon tend to get better results than those who do not.
Conclusion (So)
Amateur gardeners who use the phases of the moon are less likely to lose plants to a frost.
Evidence
Amateur gardeners who plant during the first warm spell of spring can lose plants when a frost follows.
Evaluate
The conclusion is comparative. Those who use "phases of the moon" are less likely to lose plants to a frost. Less likely than whom?
It has to be the people from the previous sentence, the ones who plant during the first warm spell of spring.
Why are "moon phase" gardeners less likely to lose plants to a frost than "first warm spell" gardeners?
The argument doesn't identify anything that "moon phase" gardeners are doing that's better. We just know that they plant based on the phases of the moon.
Goal
Look for something like, .