Commentator: The Duke of Acredia argued long ago that only virtuous Acredian rulers concerned with the well-being of the people will be able to rule successfully.
Conclusion (then)
Concern for the welfare of the people is necessary for the successful governance of Acredia.
Evidence
When Acredians governments have fallen, their falls have always been during the rule of one who viciously disregards the people's needs.
Evaluate
The conclusion is making a bold claim, using wording like "necessary". It's saying that .
All we would need to beat this conclusion is one example of a Acredian leader who wasn't concerned about the welfare of the people but was still able to successfully govern.
The author's evidence never addresses leaders that were successfully able to govern (maybe one or more of them didn't have concern about the welfare of the people).
Instead, the author tells us that all the people who were unsuccessful leaders of Acredia did not have concern for the people's welfare.
We can't just take a quality that's has been associated with unsuccessful leaders and then suddenly assume that the opposite is necessary for successful leaders.
If I said, , could I conclude, ? Of course not.
Goal
Let's look for something like , whether it's said in abstract or specific terms.