Logical Reasoning

PT142 · S4 · Q9 People are usually interested in

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People are usually interested in, and often even moved by, anecdotes about individuals, whereas they rarely even pay attention to statistical information, much less change their beliefs in response to it.

Given that ...

People are interested in anecdotes but not interested in statistical information.

and that ...

Anecdotes are generally misleading.

Why is it that ...

People still seem to have fairly accurate beliefs about society?

Goal

We need an answer to help us understand where people are getting their accurate beliefs about society.

They don't seem to get them from statistical information, because they rarely pay attention to it.

And they don't get their accurate beliefs from the anecdotes they love, because anecdotes are usually misleading atypical cases.

9.

Which one of the following, if true, would most help to explain why people tend to have accurate beliefs about society despite the facts described above?

  1. Statistical information tends to obscure

    No Impact

    Since people aren't paying attention to statistical information, we don't really care what it does. We want to know how these people have fairly accurate beliefs about society, given that they're not using statistical information.

    3% picked this

  2. Correct

    Most people recognize that anecdotes

    Why this is right

    This somewhat unsatisfying answer explains that, "even though people listen more to anecdotes, which are misleading outlier cases, they still have fairly accurate beliefs about society, because they realize that anecdotes are outlier exceptional cases." This answer is good at explaining why their beliefs aren't turned into wrong beliefs, despite how much they like listening to misleading anecdotes. It doesn't do anything to explain why their beliefs are fairly correct in the first place, though. That may irk some people, but an answer doesn't have to be perfect to be the best available.

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    66% picked this

  3. The more emotionally compelling an

    Deepens Paradox, if anything

    We're trying to explain how people tend to have fairly accurate beliefs. Anecdotes aren't going to provide them with accurate beliefs, since anecdotes tend to be misleading cases. This answer is talking about the prospect of anecdotes changing our beliefs, but since anecdotes are misleading cases, they would change our beliefs in inaccurate ways. So this is going in the opposite direction of anything that helps us.

    5% picked this

  4. Statistical information is made more

    Unclear Impact

    It sounds like if someone were to illustrate statistical information with an apt anecdote, that would be ideal. We'd get the accuracy of the statistical information with the compelling interest of the anecdote. People could learn accurate stats via their favorite thing, anecdotes. But ... it doesn't sound like this happens too much. After all, we know that people rarely pay attention to statistical information. So given that people aren't paying attention to stats, but are paying attention to generally misleading anecdotes, how do they still have fairly accurate beliefs?

    19% picked this

  5. People tend to base their

    No Impact

    We're trying to explain how people have accurate beliefs about society. This says that people base their beliefs about other people on their emotional response to those people. Do we care what people believe of about other people? No, we're trying to deal with whether people have fairly accurate beliefs about society. Moreover, there's no common sense link between "basing beliefs on your emotional response" and "tending to have accurate beliefs".

    7% picked this

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