The recent concert was probably

Answer choices

1. A

   Bad Relationship Match Weak Evidence Match18% picked this

   Dr. Smith, a well-trained cardiologist, said the patient would probably survive the heart transplant if it were performed by a highly skilled surgeon. Thus,

   The conclusion has the right strength of wording (probably). It feels like a trap that it's actually re-using the wording of "not properly". Do we have a conditional premise? Kind of: performed by → patient would highly skilled probably survive surgeon Since the strength of this is "probably", it's not really a true conditional. That mismatch would be reason enough to bail. If we were still giving this answer a chance, we could want to see the other premise trigger the rule (or its contrapositive). The other premise says "patient didn't survive", so by contrapositive we could conclude "Thus, the surgery was probably not performed by a highly skilled surgeon". But the actual conclusion brings in a new idea about whether or not it was properly performed, not whether or not it was performed by a highly skilled surgeon.

   18%
2. B

   Weak Evidence Match6% picked this

   Professor Willis, who is quite knowledgeable about organic chemistry, said that the sample probably did not contain any organic compounds. So, the sample probably

   This is pretty close, but in the original argument, the trusted source provided us with the conditional, and reality provided us with the other premise. P1: Trusted source says, "A → B" Wells says, "didn't sell out → not prop promoted" P2: X was A. Concert didn't sell out. C: X was probably B. Concert not properly promoted. In this argument, reality provides us the conditional, and the trusted source provides us with the fact. P1: contain org compounds → labeled right P2: Trusted source, "contain org compounds" C: probably labeled right.

   6%
3. C

   Correct60% picked this

   My neighbor, who is an experienced home renovator, said the damage to the wall would not be noticeable if it were properly repaired. Thus,

   Why this is right

   Just like the original argument, the trusted source provides us with the conditional, reality provides us with a fact that triggers the conditional. P1: Trusted source says, "A → B" Neighbor says, "damage → not properly noticeable repaired" P2: X was A. The wall has noticeable damage. C: X was probably B. The wall was probably not properly repaired.

   Skill tested: Parallel · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   60%
4. D

   Bad Conclusion Match6% picked this

   The builder said that the school's roof would not require repairs for years, unless it is damaged in a storm. The roof is already

   The original conclusion was not saying that someone was wrong. This could still be salvageable if "builder was wrong" was the right side of some conditional they gave us, but it isn't. The only conditional we got was this: roof not damaged → repairs not needed in storm for years Since the conclusion isn't saying "thus repairs probably won't be needed for years" or saying "thus the roof was probably damaged in the storm", we know it can't match the original argument, whose conclusion was matching the right side of our conditional.

   6%
5. E

   Invalid Reversed Logic9% picked this

   Professor Yanakita, who is an expert on the subject, said that the tests would find lead in the soil if they were properly conducted.

   Just like the original argument, the trusted source provides us with the conditional, reality provides us with a fact, but in this answer choice that fact doesn't trigger the conditional. It just establishes the outcome and then the conclusion makes an illegal reversal by then inferring the trigger. P1: Trusted source says, "A → B" Professor Yanakita says, "properly → find lead conducted in soil" The next premise should be saying, "We didn't find lead in the soil". And then the conclusion would say, "Thus the tests were probably not properly conducted." Instead, we get a flawed argument. P2: X was B. The tests did find lead. C: X was probably A. The tests were probably properly conducted.

   9%