Logical Reasoning

PT142 · S2 · Q25 A recent poll revealed that most students

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A recent poll revealed that most students at our university prefer that the university, which is searching for a new president, hire someone who has extensive experience as a university president.

Given that ...

The poll showed that most students prefer that the university hire a new president who has extensive experience as a university president.

How can it be that ...

The same poll showed that most students said their favorite candidate on the list of candidates was someone who has never served as a university president?

Evaluate

In essence, given that the students are saying they value experience as a university president, why is their favorite candidate on the list a person with no experience?

- maybe the students have no idea that favorite candidate is inexperienced

- maybe the students prefer picking someone experienced, but it's not such a overwhelming preference that it outweighs other considerations (in other words, maybe their favorite candidate from the list kicks butt in every other category, so she's their favorite candidate despite the fact that she has no experience)

- maybe the list of leading candidates doesn't include anyone experienced

Goal

Find a way to explain why students most like Candidate X, despite the fact that X has no experience and students would prefer someone with experience.

25.

Which one of the following, if true, most helps to account for the apparent discrepancy in the students' preferences?

  1. Because several of the candidates

    Deepens Paradox, if anything

    If we had been told that none of the candidates listed in the poll had extensive experience, then we could have said, "Even though students would prefer someone with experience, since no one on this list really has any, they picked whichever inexperienced person was their favorite." But this answer reveals that there were people on the list with extensive experience, so we'd be right back in our confusing Paradox.

    3% picked this

  2. Most of the candidates listed

    Deepens Paradox

    Like (A), this tells us that the students absolutely had the option to pick someone who has the extensive experience they prefer in a candidate. And yet, their favorite person on the list had no experience. So we're still confused about why they preferred an inexperienced candidate.

    1% picked this

  3. Students taking the poll had

    Unclear Impact

    The fact that the list had fewer candidates than all being considered creates a potential storyline like, "The students picked Candidate X as their favorite from the list, despite her lack of experience, because the experienced candidate they actually would most like to see hired was not on the list". But we are inventing a lot of story there at the end. The correct answer doesn't require that we add in so many of our own idea.

    3% picked this

  4. Correct

    Most of the students taking

    Why this is right

    This best explains why students, who prefer a candidate with experience, picked as their favorite option a candidate with no experience: the students had no idea whether the candidates on the list did / didn't have experience They weren't consciously going against their preference for experienced candidates. They just didn't know enough about the candidates to factor in the candidate's experience level.

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    90% picked this

  5. Often a person can be

    Cheats Background Condition

    This answer might be tempting if we were thinking, "The students picked candidate X, despite her lack of experience, because they know that a person can be great for a position even though they have relatively little experience in that position." But this answer is just saying often a candidate with no experience can still be well suited. And in the case of picking a new university president (a pretty specific job), the students polled said that they wanted someone with extensive experience. So even if the students think that experience isn't always needed in order for someone to be a good fit for a job, in the case of picking a new university president, they indicated that the candidate should have experience. In short, for us to pick this answer and say, "They favored the inexperienced candidate because they know that you don't need experience to be good", we would be cheating the background condition which was that "these students cared about whether this candidate had extensive experience!"

    3% picked this

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