Logical Reasoning

PT141 · S2 · Q23 A developing country can substantially

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A developing country can substantially increase its economic growth if its businesspeople are willing to invest in modern industries that have not yet been pursued there.

Statements

weak conditional (if X, Y can occur)

Businesspeople willing developing country to invest in 'new' → can increase econ modern industries growth a lot

pivot (But)

Being the first to invest in a 'new' industry is very risky, and there's not a lot of incentive to take this risk.

causal / conditional (Since / if)

'New' business → many others will invest in succeeds similar, diluting profits

Evaluate

Usually when we see a big Pivot word in an Inference paragraph, we want to Reconcile the Pivot, meaning figure out what the net effect is of combining what came before it with what came after.

The first sentence is saying that a country could economically benefit a lot if businesspeople were willing to invest in 'new' modern industries. But, businesspeople won't want to invest in such industries because it's a big risk without the promise of big rewards (success in that industry would result in other people diluting the profits of the risk-taker).

Goal

If we were trying to synthesize that, we might say something like, .

It's hard to predict any specific wording, but the correct answer will likely connect "boosting the economy of a developing country" to "carrying unpalatable risk to investors", since the Overlapping Idea connecting those two things is "investing in modern industries".

23.

The statements above, if true, most strongly support which one of the following claims?

  1. Once a developing country has

    Too Strong: will not contribute

    This sounds way more harsh than anything we read: As soon as a developing country has one business entering [the solar power industry], investing any more in [solar power] would not contribute to economic growth? That's crazy strong. Maybe it wouldn't contribute to substantial increases in growth, but not contribute at all?

    5% picked this

  2. In developing countries, there is

    Out of Scope: greater competition

    This introduces an unknown comparison between modern and traditional industries. We were told that if a new modern industry succeeds, there will potentially be competing investors in that modern industry. But we were told nothing about competition within traditional industries, so we have no means to make any comparison.

    7% picked this

  3. Correct

    A developing country can increase

    Why this is right

    This Reconciles the Pivot, balancing the idea that developing countries would benefit economically from investment in 'new' modern industries, but investors will see that investment as unpalatably risky. For investors, the risk seems to outweigh the incentive. The investment in a previously un-pursued modern industry is "very risky", while there is "little incentive" to do it. So it's supportable to say that if a developing country can tip the scales a little bit more by adding more incentive for investment in these new modern industries, then more investors might be willing to take on the risk (and if they succeed, it would help the developing country's economic growth). It feels weird to be bringing in this new idea of the developing country adding incentive, but it seems like a plausible takeaway given what we were told about the current imbalance between risk and reward.

    Skill tested: Most Supported · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    75% picked this

  4. A developing country will not

    Too Strong: will not / unless

    The first sentence is saying that a developing country can experience growth from investment in modern industries, but this answer choice is acting like it said that a developing country can only experience growth from investment in modern industries.

    7% picked this

  5. Investments in a modern industry

    Too Strong

    Too Strong: little risk Out of Scope: established industries This answer is essentially selling us an "illegal light switch" idea. Because the passage told us that "within new industries that no one's yet pursued, investment is very risky", it's acting like we can infer that "within industries where at least one has pursued, investment carries little risk". We don't know anything from this paragraph about industries that already have at least one established business. And it's possible that investments in them are also very risky, but the potential incentives are so high that investors are willing to take on those risks.

    6% picked this

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