Logical Reasoning

PT139 · S4 · Q4 Statistical records of crime rates

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Statistical records of crime rates probably often reflect as much about the motives and methods of those who compile or cite them as they do about the actual incidence of crime.

Conclusion

Statistical records of crime rates probably often reflect as much about the motives and methods of those who compile or cite them as they do about the actual incidence of crime.

Evidence

The police may underreport crime in order to convey the impression that they're are successfully preventing crime, or they may overreport crime in order to plausibly request a bigger operating budget.

Politicians might over-hype crime to get elected ("Only I can fix this!") or under-sell crime to remain in office ().

Newspapers often sensationalize crime to increase readership ("if it bleeds, it leads").

Evaluate / Goal

Wow. Five different examples of how someone's motives could bias the way they compile or cite crime stats.

Let's look for an answer saying that the author supports her general conclusion in the first sentence with several examples.

4.

The argument proceeds by doing which one of the following?

  1. evaluating evidence for and against

    Out of Scope: evidence against

    There's only a conclusion in the first sentence and then three premises (all examples of the conclusion). There's never any counterevidence presented or considered.

    1% picked this

  2. Correct

    citing examples in support of

    Why this is right

    The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th sentences are all examples of how the methods/motives of those compile (police) or cite (newspapers/politicians) crime stats could influence how those stats are compiled or cited.

    Skill tested: Method · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    88% picked this

  3. deriving implications of a generalization

    Too Strong

    Too Strong: assumes true Bad Evidence / Conclusion match If an author derives an implication from a generalization, that means the generalization was Evidence and the implication was a Conclusion. The conclusion is an implication we can derive from the evidence. In that sense, we might look at the conclusion and say, "There's only one implication derived: crime stats probably often reflect the motives/methods of those compiling them". So that's already an awkward fit for deriving plural implcations. More importantly, was there a generalization in the evidence? The only generalization we could really point to would be the final sentence, which says that newspapers often sensationalize crime stats to increase readership. The other premises, saying "the police may do X or Y / politicians may do A or B" aren't really making general statements. They're just describing possible hypotheticals. Does the author assume that final sentence is true? Sure, I mean in the obvious sense that any author assumes their premises are true. This answer seems to be describing an argument where a general claim is made, by others, and the author implicitly accepts it in her reasoning. e.g. Most people think that when a man takes a woman on a first date, the man should pay. Since Robert is taking Sheila on their first date to a movie, Robert should pay for the movie tickets. This would match "deriving an implication from a generalization the author assumes to be true". Meanwhile, this answer is a sloppy fit for this argument, since the author's singular conclusion is supported by considerations about the police, politicians, and newspapers, but this answer is making it seem like from this one generalization about newspapers, the author is deriving multiple implications.

    10% picked this

  4. enumerating problems for which it

    Out of Scope: solution

    Nothing here is labeled as a problem, but even if we used our common sense and thought of these examples as problematic, there's definitely no solution offered.

    0% picked this

  5. showing how evidence that apparently

    Out of Scope: evidence against

    There's only a conclusion in the first sentence and then three premises (all examples of the conclusion). There's never any evidence that apparently contradicts the conclusion.

    1% picked this

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