All the books in the library have their proper shelf locations recorded in the catalog.
Conclusion
The book Horatio wants was either misplaced or stolen.
Evidence
Horatio wants a book but can't find it in its proper place on the shelves. No one in the library is using it. It's not checked out to anyone nor is it waiting to be shelved or in an unusual place because it's part of a special display.
Evaluate
Method questions tend to pull from a pretty consistent list of moves
Analogy
Rules Out Competing Options
Implications of Logic
Make a Distinction
Alternate Explanation for a phenomenon
(Counter)example to a General Principle
Point Out Dubious Assumption
Raise an Overlooked Consideration
In this argument, the author rules out a lot of competing alternatives to arrive at the two remaining possibilities: misplaced or stolen.
Goal
Look for something like "considers and rejects other explanations" or "rules out competing alternatives".