Scientist: Given the human tendency

Answer choices

1. A

   Weak Premise Match25% picked this

   reasoning that because an event has not occurred, that event has a low

   The conclusion is definitely saying that an event (human colonization of the galaxy) has a low probability of occurring. But the premise isn't just saying "human colonization hasn't happened yet". It's a much more complicated argument based on probabilities and representative sampling and such. I will say, the fact that the author says "we are not alive during this period" is an indication that "an event (galactic colonization) has not occurred". But this answer makes it sound too much like the author's logic was simply, "If ain't happened yet, then it probably won't happen".

   25%
2. B

   No Contradiction11% picked this

   drawing a conclusion that implicitly contradicts one of the premises that

   There's almost never contradictions in LSAT paragraphs (i.e. "inconsistent / incompatible claims"). The conclusion drawn is that "it's unlikely that galactic colonization will ever happen", so according to this answer, one of the premises that the argument accepts is that "it's likely that galactic colonization will happen". There, of course, is no premise that sounds like that. When the author goes into hypothetical mode of, "Suppose it did happen", that does not count as the argument accepting that it's likely there will one day be galactic colonization.

   11%
3. C

   Too Strong: cannot ever be5% picked this

   taking for granted that dependable predictions about the future cannot ever be made simply on the basis

   It's weird to see a Necessary Assumption answer choice showing up here ("takes for granted / presumes / fails to establish" = Necessary Assumption). Was our author assuming that present facts cannot ever allow us to make dependable predictions? Heavens no. She hasn't committed herself to that crazy-extreme claim.

   5%
4. D

   Correct54% picked this

   inferring that since an event that is taken to be likely on a given hypothesis has not occurred,

   Why this is right

   Any time an answer is structured infers that since X, Y we would see the X part as referring to the evidence and the Y part as referring to the conclusion. Is the conclusion saying "a hypothesis is probably false"? It's saying that "the belief that the galaxy will eventually be colonized by trillions of humans" is probably false. It's a little weird to call that a hypothesis, which is normally used to mean "a claim that posits an explanation for a phenomenon". This is more using "hypothesis" to mean "speculative guess", which is normal in real life but very uncommon in LSAT. What makes it more like a hypothesis than just a mere prediction, I suppose, is that the first sentence is saying, "Given that humans tend to explore and colonize new areas, people hypothesize that will one day colonize and inhabit the galaxy". Okay, we've begrudgingly signed off on the conclusion part. Was the evidence saying that "an event is taken to be likely on a given hypothesis"? Yes, that's saying "given the truth of this hypothesis, event X would be likely", and our evidence was saying, "were the hypothesis that humans colonized the galaxy true, it is likely (the odds are overwhelming) that we would be living during this time period". Can we call that an event? Yeesh, I'd rather not. This correct answer is miserable. Can we say that event has not occurred? Yes, the author says "we are not alive during this period", so the 'event' of us living during the time of galactic colonization has not occurred. If we were to put this answer in more apt terms, it's saying that the author is "concluding that, since a likely implication of a given prediction is not the case, the prediction will probably not occur." This is definitely a great example of the ol' mantra: We have to pick the best-available answer, even if it's not quite an acceptable answer. I think hypothesis and event are both really curiously bad terms for this conversation.

   Skill tested: Method · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   54%
5. E

   Not the Author5% picked this

   making a prediction far into the future based on established

   This is what "some people" are doing in the first sentence. This question wants to know what method of reasoning is being used by the Scientist who wrote this whole paragraph.

   5%