Researcher: Each subject

Answer choices

1. A

   Not An Objection4% picked this

   The argument fails to estimate the likelihood that most subjects in the experiment did not know the actual statistics about how common

   Our author seems to think that the people in this study who overestimate do not know that actual stats, they just overgeneralize from their local area as a representative sample. Our author thinks it's likely (over 50%) that these overestimators don't know the actual stats. We don't need the author to put a number to that. (e.g. "there's a 70% chance that these people don't know the actual stats and just guessed based on what they see in their local areas")

   4%
2. B

   Correct83% picked this

   The argument treats a result that supports a hypothesis as a result that

   Why this is right

   The author said, "If my hypothesis is right, then X would be true. X is true, so that proves my hypothesis is correct." If a hypothesis makes a prediction and that prediction is observed, that lends support to the hypothesis but doesn't confirm it. Maybe more than one hypothesis would make the same prediction (for example, if I hypothesized that people tend to over-extrapolate from their own experiences, I would similarly predict that people would overestimate

   Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   83%
3. C

   Opposite6% picked this

   The argument fails to take into account the possibility that the subject pool may come from a wide

   The author didn't fail to take this into account; he seems to have specifically been assuming this. Since he thinks that everybody is making their guess based on what's true in their area, then different guesses imply different areas.

   6%
4. D

   Premises Don't Contradict3% picked this

   The argument attempts to draw its main conclusion from a set of premises that

   This refers to the Famous Flaw of Internal Contradiction, which is only famous for popping up in the answer choices. It's very hard for an author to contradict herself, and these premises don't contradict: - People overestimated the commonality of their car - Maybe there are different cars that are more popular in different areas, and people estimate prevalence based on their local area.

   3%
5. E

   Untrue Description4% picked this

   The argument applies a statistical generalization to a particular case to which it was not

   The research subjects make statistical generalizations in guessing how prevalent their model of car is. The author doesn't apply that statistic to an inapplicable case. The author speculates a causal explanation for why people's statistical generalizations were a certain way.

   4%