Logical ReasoningDifficulty: Easy

PT131 S1 Q14 Explanation

It would not be surprising

A free, expert breakdown of this official LSAT Logical Reasoning question.

TopicsRole

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Stimulus

It would not be surprising to discover that the trade routes between China and the West were opened many centuries, even millennia, earlier than 200 B.C., contrary to what is currently believed. After all, what made the Great Silk Road so attractive as a trade route linking China and the West—level terrain, the Middle East, and this early migration began at least one million years ago.

What this question is testing

Role

Your task

Break the argument into its conclusion and evidence, then do exactly what the question stem asks with that structure.

Common trap

Answers that sound relevant to the topic but don't connect to the argument's actual reasoning.

Winning move

Predict what a right answer must do, then test each choice against the conclusion-evidence gap.

Reading along? Open the full official question in LawHub — we show a fragment here and keep the reasoning in our own words.

The question
14.

That a migration from Africa and the Middle East to China occurred at least one million years ago figures in the above reasoning in which

Answer choices

  1. Too Strong: “conclusive”6% picked this

    It is cited as conclusive evidence for the claim that trade links between China and the Middle East were

    Too strong to call this conclusive evidence, when the conclusion’s wording is only as strong as “it wouldn’t be surprising”. Conclusive evidence means that it 100% proves the conclusion. If you have conclusive evidence, then the conclusion follows logically / is properly drawn / is properly inferred.

  2. Not Subsidiary Conclusion9% picked this

    It is an intermediate conclusion made plausible by the description of the terrain along which the

    It is not a subsidiary conclusion, because no support is provided for it. Why should we believe that a migration from Africa / Middle East to China occurred a million years ago? The argument doesn’t provide any support for that idea, so it’s impossible to regard that claim as a conclusion.

  3. Correct82% picked this

    It is offered as evidence in support of the claim that trade routes between China and the West could easily have been established

    Why this is right

    It’s a premise (i.e. evidence/support) and the conclusion is the first sentence. This is a bit of a weird meaning match, but when we say that something "would not be surprising", we mean "it would very much match expectations", and thus it's a pretty fair match for saying "it something that could easily be true". Suppose we know that Tina attends law school at Yale. We might say, "It would not be surprising if Tina had a really high LSAT score. It would match my expectations if I found out that Tina had a high LSAT score. It could easily be true that Tina had a high LSAT score."

    Skill tested: Role · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

  4. Unmentioned / Out of Scope: “preceded”1% picked this

    It is offered as evidence against the claim that trade routes between China and Africa preceded those eventually established between

    The author never tries to differentiate a China ? Africa route from a China ? Middle East one. When our author brings up Africa and the Middle East, they are lumped together into the same timeframe.

  5. Not The Conclusion2% picked this

    It is the main conclusion that the argument attempts to establish about intercourse between China

    The conclusion is the first sentence, not this claim. Any time two claims are joined by “and”, neither one of them is going to be the conclusion.

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