Logical Reasoning

PT13 · S2 · Q19 Each year, an official estimate

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Each year, an official estimate of the stock of cod in the Grand Banks is announced.

Given that ...

In previous decades,

estimate of total cod estimate of total cod based on once-year = based on average # of research vessel's tons of cod caught per cod catchings km of net, per hour on commercial boats

Why is it that ...

For the last decade, the one on the right has been going up a bunch and the one on the left has been going down?

Evaluate / Goal

We either need a way to explain why, over the past decade, commercial vessels are catching more cod per km of net per hour than before, or a way to explain why, over the past decade, the once-yearly research vessel is catching less cod (or both).

19.

Which one of the following, if true, most helps to account for the growing discrepancy between the estimate based on commercial tonnage and the research-based estimate?

  1. Fishing vessels often exceed their

    Opposite No Timeframe Distinction

    We were looking for a way to explain why fishing vessels are reporting way more cod than before. This answer is going the opposite direction, talking about underreporting. Also, it doesn't present anything that is different about the last decade, compared to the previous decades.

    6% picked this

  2. More survey vessels are now

    Opposite

    We were looking for a way to explain why the number of cod caught by the research survey vessel was lower than before, but having more vessels out on the prowl would be a reason there would be higher counts than before.

    2% picked this

  3. Correct

    Improvements in technology over the

    Why this is right

    This provides a distinction between the last decade and the previous decades. If we've made technology improvements that let fishing vessels locate and catch large schools of cod more easily, then that would explain why over the last ten years commercial vessels are catching more cod per km of net per hour. It also obliquely explains why the research vessel is finding inverse proportionally less. If the fishing vessels are getting way more efficient and grabbing cod out of the water, then when the research vessel goes to take its annual survey, it's going to count a lot fewer cod, since the fishing success has decimated the local population of cod.

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    66% picked this

  4. Survey vessels count only those

    No Timeframe Distinction

    This answer doesn't indicate that the methods have changed in the last ten years, so this is hopeless as a way to explain why the last ten years are different from the previous decades.

    23% picked this

  5. Because of past overfishing of

    Opposite

    This answer describes a change in the past ten years, but that change points to a decreasing number of cod being caught by fishing vessels. We wanted to explain why they seem to be catching way more cod.

    3% picked this

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