Logical Reasoning

PT127 · S1 · Q15 Some scientists have expressed reservations

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Some scientists have expressed reservations about quantum theory because of its counterintuitive consequences.

Conclusion (warrant)

We should accept quantum theory.

Evidence

There have been rigorous attempts to show that quantum theory's predictions are inaccurate, but in all cases quantum theory's predictions were shown to be accurate within the generally accepted statistical margin of error.

Meanwhile, none of quantum theory's competitors can boast that level of predictive success.

Evaluate

We generally want to prephrase "IF premise, THEN conclusion" linking ideas on Principle-Strengthen questions.

If ... Then ... a theory's predictions have we should been very accurate, more so accept that than those of its competitors theory

Goal

Let's look for a conditional whose trigger matches stuff we know about Quantum Theory, and whose outcome helps us to argue that "we should accept Quantum Theory".

15.

Which one of the following principles most helps to justify the reasoning above?

  1. A scientific theory should be

    Bad Trigger Match

    This rule's outcome matches our conclusion, so it's tempting to consider. If ... Then ... a theory's has fewer we should counterintuitive consequences accept that than competing theories do theory Does that trigger apply to Quantum Theory? Were we told that Quantum Theory has fewer counterintuitive consequences than its competitors? No, we were told the opposite! Quantum Theory is famous for having counterintuitive consequences! (we should have suspected a bad answer when we saw it was using "counterintuitive consequences", since that is from a Counterpoint, not from the Evidence)

    9% picked this

  2. Correct

    scientific theory should be accepted

    Why this is right

    This rule's outcome matches our conclusion, so it's tempting to consider. If ... Then ... a theory's has been subjected we should to serious attempts to disprove accept that and withstood all of them theory Does that trigger apply to Quantum Theory? Were we told that Quantum Theory has been subjected to serious attempts to disprove it? Yes, "despite rigorous attempts to show its predictions are inaccurate ..." Were we told that Quantum Theory has withstood all these attempts to disprove it? Yes, "quantum theory's predictions were shown to be accurate". The trigger applies to Quantum Theory, so the rule dictates that we should accept Quantum Theory, which matches our conclusion! (The part about "within the accepted margin of error" is meaningless science talk. If quantum theory predicted a velocity of 56.58892 m / sec and the measured velocity was 56.58893 m / sec, we say, okay that's close enough. You nailed it, Quantum Theory. Yes your prediction was 0.00001 m / sec off, but that's within the acceptable margin of error)

    Skill tested: Principle-Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    71% picked this

  3. The consequences of a scientific

    Bad Conclusion Match

    This rule's outcome does not match our conclusion, so this is not tempting. If ... Then ... a theory's has the consequences of accurate predictions that theory shouldn't be called counterintuit. The trigger does apply to Quantum Theory, but this rule would allow us to conclude, "Thus, we shouldn't call QT's consequences counterintuitive", which is not the same as "Thus, we should accept QT."

    12% picked this

  4. A theory should not be

    Bad Trigger Match Weak Outcome Match

    This rule's outcome doesn't quite match our conclusion, so it's not very tempting. "Not rejecting" a theory is not the same as "accepting" a theory. There's a big middle ground of being agnostic about whether the theory is / isn't true. More importantly, the trigger is actually the opposite of what we know. If ... Then ... a theory's has not been we should subjected to serious attempts not reject than competing theories do theory That trigger does not apply to Quantum Theory, because QT has been subjected to serious attempts to disprove it.

    3% picked this

  5. A theory should be accepted

    Reversed Logic

    This rule is putting our Conclusion into the trigger, which is always wrong. If ... Then ... we should accept its predictions have a theory not been disproved If these ideas went in the other order, this would be a usable correct answer.

    6% picked this

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