Logical Reasoning

PT125 · S4 · Q20 TV meteorologist: Our station's

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TV meteorologist: Our station's weather forecasts are more useful and reliable than those of the most popular news station in the area.

Evidence

The most important question for viewers in this area is whether it will rain.

On most of the occasions when we have forecast rain for the next day, we have been right.

The same cannot be said for either of our competitors.

Conclusion

Our station’s weather forecasts are more useful and reliable than those of the most popular news station in the area.

Evaluate

The accuracy of the station’s weather forecasts depends on whether they predict rain or not and whether they are right or wrong. Since the station’s weather forecasts are more accurate than the competitors’ forecasts when they predict rain, the only thing left to determine is which station is the most accurate when they predict it will not rain. The combination of those two will determine the overall accuracy of each station’s weather forecasts.

20.

Which one of the following, if true, most strengthens the meteorologist's argument?

  1. Correct

    The meteorologist's station forecast rain

    Why this is right

    This makes it much harder for the other stations to catch up to the meteorologist’s station and so more likely that the meteorologist’s station is the most useful and reliable.

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    58% picked this

  2. The less popular of the

    Out of Scope

    The conclusion is that the meteorologist’s station is more useful and reliable than the most popular news station in the area. The less popular station in the area is not relevant to the comparison.

    5% picked this

  3. The most popular news station

    Out of Scope

    The argument’s conclusion is about the usefulness and reliability of the weather forecasts. So other popular aspects of the news stations are not relevant.

    10% picked this

  4. The meteorologist's station has a

    Weaken

    This might make the forecasts of the meteorologist’s station less useful.

    15% picked this

  5. On most of the occasions

    Too Weak

    This does not indicate whether the meteorologist’s station or the most popular station was more accurate when they forecast that it would not rain.

    12% picked this

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