Reporter: A team of scientists has recently devised a new test that for the first time accurately diagnoses autism in children as young as 18 months old. When used to evaluate 16,000 children at their 18-month checkup, the test correctly diagnosed all 10 children later confirmed to be autistic, though it also benefit much earlier in life than before from the treatments already available.
What this question is testing
The Argument
A new test catches all 10 truly autistic children in a group of 16,000, but it also flags 2 children who turn out not to be autistic. The reporter concludes children with autism can now benefit earlier from treatment.
Evaluate
For that conclusion to follow, the test has to actually be used as a basis for starting treatment. But the test makes mistakes — 2 false positives. Would those mistakes derail the case for using the test? Only if we assume that a test with some false positives can still reasonably guide treatment decisions.
If false positives made the test useless for treatment, the conclusion collapses (no one gets early treatment because no one trusts the result).
Goal
The right answer should say a test that sometimes falsely diagnoses can still reasonably guide treatment.
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