Logical ReasoningDifficulty: Hard

PT123 S2 Q18 Explanation

Modern science is built on the process

A free, expert breakdown of this official LSAT Logical Reasoning question.

TopicsMost Supported

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Stimulus

Modern science is built on the process of posing hypotheses and testing them against observations—in essence, attempting to show that the hypotheses are incorrect. Nothing brings more recognition than overthrowing conventional wisdom. It is accordingly unsurprising that some scientists are skeptical of the widely accepted predictions of global warming. What is instead in climatology, very few find evidence that global warming is unlikely.

What this question is testing

Most Supported

Conclusion

The author's underlying point is about the incentive structure climatologists face: they would get a huge career boost by overturning the global warming consensus, yet very few of them are finding evidence that would do that.

Evidence

Two key facts. First, in modern science, the biggest prestige goes to scientists who overthrow conventional wisdom. Second, hundreds of researchers are working in climatology, yet very few find evidence that global warming is unlikely.

Evaluate

Notice how the author frames the second fact — as remarkable. That word is doing all the work. It's remarkable precisely because the incentives push researchers to look for disconfirming evidence. Most of those hundreds of researchers would love to be the one who proves global warming wrong; that would make their career.

So the implied claim is: those researchers have a strong motive to find evidence against global warming. The fact that they aren't finding it tells us something — but the question only asks us to identify the motive piece, not the further inference.

Goal

Pick the answer that says: most climatology researchers have substantial motive to find evidence that would discredit the global warming hypothesis.

Reading along? Open the full official question in LawHub — we show a fragment here and keep the reasoning in our own words.

The question
18.

The information above provides the most support for which one of the

Answer choices

  1. Unsupported7% picked this

    Most scientists who are reluctant to accept the global warming hypothesis are not acting in accordance with the

    The passage doesn't suggest skeptics are violating the standards of scientific debate. In fact, the author calls the existence of skeptics "unsurprising" given the prestige attached to overturning conventional wisdom — i.e., normal scientific behavior. There's no implication of misconduct.

  2. Correct56% picked this

    Most researchers in climatology have substantial motive to find evidence that would discredit the

    Why this is right

    This is the implied point. Recognition flows to scientists who overturn conventional wisdom. Hundreds of researchers are striving for breakthroughs in climatology. Together those facts tell us most of those researchers have substantial professional motive to find evidence that would discredit global warming. The author flags as "remarkable" precisely the fact that few succeed — which only makes sense if the motivation to succeed was there.

    Skill tested: Most Supported · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

  3. Too Strong11% picked this

    There is evidence that conclusively shows that the global warming hypothesis

    The passage notes that few researchers find evidence against global warming, but it does not claim this conclusively shows global warming is true. Absence of disconfirming evidence is suggestive, not conclusive. The author is making a point about researcher motivation, not declaring the science settled.

  4. Unsupported21% picked this

    Scientists who are skeptical about global warming have not offered any alternative hypotheses to

    The passage says nothing about whether skeptics have offered alternative hypotheses. It only says some skeptics exist. Whether or not they have alternatives is unaddressed.

  5. Too Strong6% picked this

    Research in global warming is primarily driven by a desire for recognition in

    The passage says recognition motivates researchers in general, but does not claim that recognition is the primary driver of global warming research. There could be many motivations — public health concern, intellectual curiosity, funding, career advancement of various kinds. "Primarily driven by" is a stronger claim than the passage supports.

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