Logical Reasoning

PT120 · S4 · Q26 The number of applications for

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The number of applications for admission reported by North American Ph.D. programs in art history has declined in each of the last four years.

Conclusion

Interest in a career in art history as a career has declined in the last four years, among recent NA college grads.

Evidence

The number of applications for art history Ph.D. programs has declined over the last four years.

Evaluate

If we're trying to weaken, we can ask ourselves,

GIVEN THAT the number of Ph.D. apps for art history has declined, HOW CAN WE SAY there's still just as much interest in art history as a career?

Maybe you don't need a Ph.D. as much any more to get a job in art history. Maybe these programs have jacked up their tuition or gotten a bad reputation.

This argument has the classic Curious Fact / Explanation structure. The author is asking himself, and then coming up with the explanation,

We always evaluate two different pressure points to these arguments: 1. How ELSE could we explain that Curious Fact? 2. How plausible is the Author's Explanation?

Goal

We want to eliminate four answers that either pose an alternate explanation for why the number of Ph.D. applications has declined, or one that make it seem like interest in art history careers is just as strong as ever.

26.

Each of the following, if true, weakens the argument EXCEPT:

  1. The number of North American

    Alternate Explanation

    The real reason the number of applications has declined is because fewer Ph.D. programs are reporting their data (thus we never hear about the applications occurring at their schools).

    3% picked this

  2. Correct

    The average age of applicants

    Why this is right

    This is either irrelevant or somewhat Strengthens the author's causal story. Since he is saying that careers in art history are a dying trend among recent grads, the fact that the people who are applying are older could reinforce the idea that younger people don't have much interest in pursuing this career.

    Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    60% picked this

  3. The number of errors in

    Alternate Explanation

    The real reason the number of applications has been lower is just crappy data. Naturally, this answer didn't say that the errors involved undercounting the number of applications, but alternative explanations just have to be suggested, not clearly established, in order to create some weakening doubt.

    3% picked this

  4. The number of North American

    Alternate Explanation

    The real reason the number of Ph.D. apps has declined is because you increasingly don't need a Ph.D. to get a job in art history.

    11% picked this

  5. The percentage of applications for

    Alternate Explanation

    The real reason the number of Ph.D. apps has declined is because of a decline in interest among international students, not among recent North American grad students.

    23% picked this

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