Logical Reasoning

PT120 · S4 · Q2 Dr. Theresa Pagano, a biologist

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Dr. Theresa Pagano, a biologist, has found that the checkerspot butterfly is becoming more prevalent in regions farther north than before and less prevalent in regions farther south.

Conclusion (therefore concluded)

The Checker Spot Butterfly is moving north due to changing climate conditions, specifically the northward shift of warm zones.

Evidence

Checker Spot Butterflies have become more prevalent in northern regions and less so in southern regions.

Evaluate

We have a causal conclusion ("responsible") and an curious comparison in the evidence ("more prevalent").

CURIOUS FACT: how come this butterfly is more prevalent in the north and less in the south?

EXPLANATION: the northern areas have warmed from climate change, and that warmth brought the butterfly there.

Goal

Get rid of the four answers that strengthen. Strengthening answers will either rule out alternate explanations for why the butterfly is found more in the north / less in the south, or they will corroborate the hypothesis that it's because of the climate shift.

2.

Each of the following, if true, supports Dr. Pagano's reasoning EXCEPT:

  1. Checkerspot butterfly colonies observed under

    Strengthens

    This states that in lab conditions, butterfly colonies are critically affected by small temperature changes, heightening the plausibility that climate-induced temperature shifts impact their movement.

    2% picked this

  2. Climate does not affect checkerspot

    Strengthens

    This makes the author's hypothesis more plausible. While climate change doesn't directly affect the butterflies, it influences their food sources, which thrive in warm climates. It indirectly supports the hypothesis by linking climate change to butterfly movement through their dependency on plants.

    4% picked this

  3. Correct

    Experimental evidence suggests that the

    Why this is right

    This suggests that the Checker Spot Butterfly can adapt easily to various temperatures and conditions, which does nothing to strengthen, and may even undermine the idea that a warming shift would make enough different to influence the butterfly's habitat.

    Skill tested: Strengthen · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    88% picked this

  4. In recent years, abnormally low

    Strengthens

    This provides data showing fewer butterflies in lower temperatures, backing the idea that higher temperatures are favorable, and supporting the causal link between climate change and their movement. Since the author thinks warmer temps in the north led to more butterflies, this is the classic "no cause / no effect" strengthener, where an absence of warmth goes hand in hand with an absence of butterflies.

    2% picked this

  5. Several studies have shown that

    Strengthens

    This boosts the plausibility of the author's hypothesis, noting that closely related butterfly species only survive in warm climates, offering analogous reasoning to support the idea that checkerspot Butterflies might similarly require warm climates.

    4% picked this

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