Logical Reasoning

PT120 · S4 · Q19 Fishing columnist: When an independent

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Fishing columnist: When an independent research firm compared the five best-selling baits, it found that Benton baits work best for catching trout.

Conclusion

Benton is the best bait for anyone who is fishing for trout

Evidence

In a study, 12 top anglers tried out the five top selling baits, and Benton gave them most success fishing for speckled trout in a northern stream.

Evaluation

The conclusion speaks for a wide range of people, "anyone who is fishing for trout". Will Benton always be the best? We have to think of ways in which Benton could be #1 in this study but not be #1 for someone else who is fishing for trout?

This is essentially a Sampling flaw, because we're assuming that the experience top anglers had in using Benton bait to fish for speckled trout in a northern stream would generalize to anyone doing trout fishing.

Goal

Look for ways in which the results of this experiment wouldn't carry over. - maybe it works for top anglers but not amateurs - maybe it works for speckled trout but not other kinds - maybe it works in northern streams but not other streams - maybe there's a bait beyond the top 5 sellers that would work better for someone

19.

Each of the following describes a flaw in the reasoning in the fishing columnist's argument EXCEPT:

  1. The argument overlooks the possibility

    Valid Objection

    We only measured the top 5 sellers but then concluded that Benton is #1 among all baits.

    5% picked this

  2. The argument overlooks the possibility

    Valid Objection

    We only measured what was best for top anglers but we're concluding Benton would be #1 for anyone.

    4% picked this

  3. The argument overlooks the possibility

    Valid Objection

    We only measured how Benton performed in a pristine northern stream. Maybe if you're trout fishing in a turgid southern rivulet (just having fun with my mental thesaurus), it wouldn't work as well.

    3% picked this

  4. Correct

    The argument overlooks the possibility

    Why this is right

    Would it weaken the argument for us to say, "Hey, author, the two best-selling brands of bait are equally effective"? Not necessarily. We know that the author is arguing that Benton is the best, and we know that Benton is one of the top five best-selling brands. Is Benton #1? #4? #5? We don't know where it ranks in sales among the five best-selling brands. Let's say that it's the 3rd best selling bait. This answer is saying that the 1st and 2nd best selling baits are equally effective. That wouldn't weaken the author's argument at all. She isn't claiming that Benton is ranked #1 in terms of sales. She's saying Benton is #1 in terms of effectiveness. If the 1st and 2nd best selling baits are equally effective, that doesn't pose any problem for the author. They can be tied at a lower level of effectiveness. We know that anglers had the most success with Benton. Let's say they caught an average of 10 trout per hour and call that Benton bait's effectiveness. This answer is saying, "Hey, author, you're failing to consider that the two best selling brands are tied at an average of 7 trout caught per hour." That doesn't hurt the author's argument in any way, so we can't consider this overlooked possibility a flaw.

    Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    66% picked this

  5. The argument overlooks the possibility

    Valid Objection

    We only measured how Benton performed with speckled trout, but maybe it doesn't do as well with other varieties of trout.

    22% picked this

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