A recent study involved feeding a high-salt diet to a rat colony. A few months after the experiment began, standard tests of the rats’ blood pressure revealed that about 25 percent of the colony had normal, healthy blood pressure, about 70 percent of the colony had high blood pressure, and 5 percent is that high-salt diets are linked to high blood pressure in rats.
What this question is testing
The Argument
Researchers fed rats a high-salt diet. A few months later, 75% of those rats had high blood pressure. The conclusion: salt is linked to high blood pressure in rats.
Evaluate
Notice what the argument is missing — a "before" picture. We only see the rats after the diet. What if 75% of them already had high blood pressure when the study began? Then the diet did not cause anything; we would just be observing what was already true.
It is like measuring the height of a group of basketball players, finding they are tall, and concluding that something they did made them tall. Maybe — but you would want to know how tall they were when you started.
Goal
The right question to ask is the one that gets us the baseline measurement.
Reading along? Open the full official question in LawHub — we show a fragment here and keep the reasoning in our own words.