In 1988 the government of Country X

Answer choices

1. A

   Unknown Comparison6% picked this

   The government’s estimate of growth in the number of people employed was less accurate after the government began using the new program

   We have no information about the government's estimation method from before, so there's no way to derive a comparison about whether the computer method is more / less / equally accurate.

   6%
2. B

   Out of Scope: Awareness17% picked this

   The people who designed the new program were unaware of the fact that some workers in X receive more than

   We can't derive anything about the awareness of the designers of the new computer program. Even though we've "spotted" a potential error with this methodology, that doesn't mean that the designers were oblivious to it. They may have considered it an allowable margin of error. Designer 1: "What about the fact that some people get multiple paychecks, so the system will treat that as multiple jobs?" Designer 2: "Yeahhhh. No system is perfect. That phenomenon is rare enough that it'll only negligibly distort the final number. It's just an estimate after all." Designer 1: "Sounds good. What are you thinking for lunch?" Designer 2: "I'm thinkin' Arby's."

   17%
3. C

   Unknown Comparison5% picked this

   The government had not reported strong growth in the number of people employed for the quarters just before

   We know practically nothing about the last quarter of 1987. We know that 1st quarter of 1988 was thought to be an increase, but the 4th quarter of 1987 may have been thought to be an increase over 3rd quarter of 1987. Maybe Country X was recovering from a nasty pandemic-induced Depression, so for several quarters in a row, there appeared to be strong growth in number of people employed.

   5%
4. D

   Correct70% picked this

   The government overestimated the total number of people employed in X for the first quarter for which

   Why this is right

   What's lovable about this is that it doesn't make a comparison to 4th quarter of 1987, which is a time period we know nothing about. It just states the evident flaw in this counting system --- they use total number paychecks to estimate total number of employed workers. However, since some workers will receive 2 or 3 paychecks in a given pay period, the system is going to think that there are more employed workers than there are. Another way to say it: Since every employee gets at least one paycheck per pay period, and some employees get more than one (if they had overtime / bonus / commission), then there will be more paychecks than employees. And the computer program estimates by thinking: # of paychecks = # of employees

   Skill tested: Must be True · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   70%
5. E

   Too Strong: No Growth2% picked this

   Contrary to the claims of the government of Country X, there was no growth in the number of people employed in X in the

   Even though we know the computer program is overcounting, there could still be actual job growth happening in the 1st quarter. We can't rule out the possibility of more people being employed, just because we know the computer program is overcounting.

   2%