Logical Reasoning

PT118 · S3 · Q13 Harrold Foods is attempting to

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Harrold Foods is attempting to dominate the soft-drink market by promoting “Hero, ” its most popular carbonated drink product, with a costly new advertising campaign.

Conclusion

Harrold dominates the market now and need only maintain its current market share in order to continue to do so.

Evidence (since)

Any product with more than 50% of the sales in a market dominates that market.

Survey results show that 72% of consumers think that Harrold's soda "Hero" already dominates the market.

Evaluate

The conclusion makes two claims, so we can decide how we might object to each of them.

Has the author convinced us that "Harrold Foods dominates the market now"?

Not quite. He defined "dominates" as "more than 50% of sales", but he never established that Harrold has more than 50% of sales. He just said more than 50% (72%) of consumers think that Harrold dominates.

That's their opinion, not necessarily a fact. A semi-famous flaw we see now and then is this distinction between Opinion vs. Fact.

Has the author convinced us that ?

No, but that's because we're not convinced that Harrold Foods currently has a market share above 50%. If they really do currently have more than 50% of sales, and they were to maintain that market share, then they would continue to dominate (since dominate is defined as "more than 50%").

Goal

So it seems like we should be objecting to the first prong of the two-pronged conclusion. The author hasn't established that Harrold currently has more than 50% of sales in the market.

If he thinks that a survey showing 72% of consumers believe that Harrold's soda already dominates the market, then he's acting like we should just blindly trust that this survey opinion is factually correct.

13.

The argument commits which one of the following errors in reasoning?

  1. failing to exclude the possibility

    Not Causal

    This answer is referring to the Famous Causal Flaw, in which an author is overconfident about one possible causal explanation, while failing to consider other possible causal explanations. In particular, this answer is saying that author failed to consider the possibility of Reverse Causality. But nothing in this argument is at all causal, so this is just meant to sound tempting because it sometimes shows up as a correct answer.

    8% picked this

  2. mistaking a condition required if

    Not Necessary vs. Sufficient

    This answer is referring to the #1 Famous Necessary vs. Sufficient Flaw, in which the author presents a conditional logic premise and then tries to apply it by using an illegal negation or reversal. But nothing in this argument is at all conditional, so this is just meant to sound tempting because it sometimes shows up as a correct answer.

    15% picked this

  3. treating the failure to establish

    Not Unproven vs. Proven False

    This answer is referring to the famous Unproven vs. Proven False flaw, in which an author takes a failure to prove X true shows that X is false (or, as this answer describes, a failure to prove X false shows that X is true) This argument doesn't involve any sort of rebuttal. The evidence never says that someone failed to prove a certain claim false.

    1% picked this

  4. Correct

    taking evidence that a claim

    Why this is right

    The author is arguing that Harrold currently dominates the market, based on the fact that 72% of consumers surveyed think that Harrold dominates the market. It is believed to be true that "Harrold dominates the market" and the author acts like that's evidence for the conclusion that "Harrold does in fact dominate the market".

    Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    65% picked this

  5. describing survey results that were

    Too Strong: bound to obtain

    The author isn't ever predicting that survey results will be sure to obtain in the future as well. He makes no guarantee that future surveys will show that 72% of consumers think Harrold dominates the market. He only guarantees that if Harrold currently dominates the market, then they will continue to do so in the future as well if they maintain their current market share.

    11% picked this

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