Logical Reasoning

PT116 · S2 · Q4 A study claims that the average

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A study claims that the average temperature on Earth has permanently increased, because the average temperature each year for the last five years has been higher than any previous yearly average on record.

Facts

Average temp for each of the last five years has yet a new record. Some claim the average temp has permanently increased, However, in the past there have been periods of up to ten consecutive years of then-record highs that were part of the random fluctuations that are always occuring.

Evaluate

This paragraph creates some tension by starting with a Claim and then pivoting with a However to some counterevidence.

Normally, when a Most Supported paragraph has a But / Yet / However style pivot before the last sentence, the correct answer Straddles the Pivot, meaning it somehow reconciles what came before with what came after.

Goal

We probably want to find a safely worded synthesis of the claim and the counterevidence. We can't say that the claim was right or wrong for sure. It's possible that this recent temp increase is permanent, but there's at least historical precedent suggesting it might just be a random fluctuation.

We could say something like .

4.

Which one of the following is most strongly supported by the information above?

  1. All large increases in average

    Too Strong: all

    We have no way from this paragraph to prove that every single time there has been a large increase in average temp, it's been for a ten year period.

    1% picked this

  2. Correct

    Five successive years of increasing

    Why this is right

    This is provable from our info. "X is not always Y" has a very low burden of proof: prove that there's at least one example of X that was not Y. Do we have at least one example of five straight years of increasing temps that did not signify a permanent increase in temperature? Sure. Apparently there have even been periods of ten years that were just part of the random fluctuation. Random fluctuation = not a permanent increase

    Skill tested: Most Supported · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    90% picked this

  3. Record high temperatures can be

    Too Strong: can be expected

    Just because we've seen temps rise for 5 years, and because there have been some 10 year rises in temp, we can't assume that we are currently in one of those 10 year periods. The author cited "periods of up to 10 years", so many of these random fluctuations lasted less than 10 years.

    2% picked this

  4. Random fluctuations in Earth’s average

    Too Strong: typically

    We don't have enough information about random fluctuations to guess whether more than 50% of them are less than ten years. First of all, the author used language "up to ten years", which includes ten years. So maybe the majority of those "up to ten" were actually ten! More importantly, our author was only discussing the type of random fluctuation in which you get multiple consecutive years (up to 10) of rising temperatures. That might not be the only type of random fluctuation. It might be even more common for there to be 20 year cooling cycles that happen as part of the random fluctuations. (I will say, it seems crazy to be using period/cycle in the same sentence as random. It would be tempting to think of random has meaning every year is its own "cycle", since it's all random. But in the context they're making it seem like "trends" coexist within "randomness")

    4% picked this

  5. The average temperature on Earth

    Too Strong: never / except

    We don't have enough info to say that random temperature fluctuations are the only cause ever of temperature increases.

    2% picked this

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