A study claims that the average

Answer choices

1. A

   Too Strong: all2% picked this

   All large increases in average temperature on record have occurred in

   We have no way from this paragraph to prove that every single time there has been a large increase in average temp, it's been for a ten year period.

   2%
2. B

   Correct90% picked this

   Five successive years of increasing annual average temperature does not always signify a permanent

   Why this is right

   This is provable from our info. "X is not always Y" has a very low burden of proof: prove that there's at least one example of X that was not Y. Do we have at least one example of five straight years of increasing temps that did not signify a permanent increase in temperature? Sure. Apparently there have even been periods of ten years that were just part of the random fluctuation. Random fluctuation = not a permanent increase

   Skill tested: Most Supported · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   90%
3. C

   Too Strong: can be expected3% picked this

   Record high temperatures can be expected on Earth for another

   Just because we've seen temps rise for 5 years, and because there have been some 10 year rises in temp, we can't assume that we are currently in one of those 10 year periods. The author cited "periods of up to 10 years", so many of these random fluctuations lasted less than 10 years.

   3%
4. D

   Too Strong: typically4% picked this

   Random fluctuations in Earth’s average temperature typically last less than

   We don't have enough information about random fluctuations to guess whether more than 50% of them are less than ten years. First of all, the author used language "up to ten years", which includes ten years. So maybe the majority of those "up to ten" were actually ten! More importantly, our author was only discussing the type of random fluctuation in which you get multiple consecutive years (up to 10) of rising temperatures. That might not be the only type of random fluctuation. It might be even more common for there to be 20 year cooling cycles that happen as part of the random fluctuations. (I will say, it seems crazy to be using period/cycle in the same sentence as random. It would be tempting to think of random has meaning every year is its own "cycle", since it's all random. But in the context they're making it seem like "trends" coexist within "randomness")

   4%
5. E

   Too Strong: never / except2% picked this

   The average temperature on Earth never increases except in cases of

   We don't have enough info to say that random temperature fluctuations are the only cause ever of temperature increases.

   2%