By the year 2030, the Earth’s population is expected to increase to 10 billion; ideally, all would enjoy standards of living equivalent to those of present-day industrial democracies. However, if 10 billion people consume critical natural resources such as copper, nickel, and petroleum at the current per capita rates of industrialized countries, solid waste every year to bury a large city and its surrounding suburbs 100 meters deep.
These estimates are not meant to predict a grim future. Instead they emphasize the incentives for recycling, conservation, and a switch to alternative materials. They also suggest that the traditional model of industrial activity, in which individual manufacturing processes take in raw materials and generate products to be sold plus waste to petroleum refining or discarded plastic containers from consumer products—serve as the raw material for another process.
Materials in an ideal industrial ecosystem would not be depleted any more than are materials in a biological ecosystem, in which plants synthesize nutrients that feed herbivores, some of which in turn feed a chain of carnivores whose waste products and remains eventually feed further generations of plants. A chunk of steel generation of some wastes and harmful by-products, but at much lower levels than are typical today.
The ideal industrial ecosystem, in which there is an economically viable role for every product of a manufacturing process, will not be attained soon; current technology is often inadequate to the task. However, if industrialized nations embrace major and minor changes in their current industrial practices and developing nations bypass older, less face of decreasing supplies of raw materials and increasing problems of waste and pollution.
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