Logical Reasoning

PT114 · S2 · Q7 Passenger volume in the airline

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Passenger volume in the airline industry has declined dramatically over the past two years, and thus fewer travelers and fewer planes are using airports.

Given that ...

Airport expansion is warranted only by increases in air traffic volume

and that ...

Over the past two years passenger volume has dramatically declined (and it'll probably be at least five years before passenger volume returns to the previous level, let alone exceeds it).

Why is it that ...

Airports are going ahead with plans to expand their passenger terminal facilities now?

Evaluate

Since expansion is justified by increases in passenger volume, but we don't expect an increase in passenger volume for at least five years, shouldn't the airport be waiting at least five years before expanding?

Goal

There must be some positive about doing the expansion now that motivates the airline's decision (cheaper labor? easier to do when the airport is less crowded? extra money in the budget this year? tax incentive?)

7.

Which one of the following, if true, provides the best reason in favor of the airports' timing of their planned expansions?

  1. It is generally more difficult

    Unclear Impact

    This says that it's easier to finance major construction when the economy isn't in a period of decline. So maybe the airports are doing their terminal expansions now because the economy isn't in decline, whereas five years from now the economy will be in decline? That's a potential way to explain their decision, but we have no idea whether the economy is currently in decline or will be in five years.

    1% picked this

  2. Correct

    Low volume in passenger air

    Why this is right

    This is saying that if they do airport expansion now, while there's low volume in air travel, then it will cause little inconvenience to the public. Meanwhile, if they waited to do the expansion until passenger volume was normal or high, they would be inconveniencing the public. This offers a clear difference between doing the expansion now vs. doing it later once passenger volume is higher, and we can use our common sense to know that an airport would be happy about minimizing the inconvenience the expansion causes to the public.

    Skill tested: Paradox · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    89% picked this

  3. A rise in fuel costs

    Deepens Paradox, if anything

    This suggests that in the near future, airline travel will be more expensive. That suggests that fewer people will fly, which suggests that it could be even longer than five years before passenger volume is at a normal or high level again. Thus, this answer makes us even more confused about why the airports would expand now. Expansion is about handling increasing passenger volume, and it sounds like they might not have increased passenger volume for quite a while.

    1% picked this

  4. When passenger volume begins to

    No Impact: new routes / planes

    This is saying that when passenger volume resumes normalcy again (in about five years) after this current decline in volume, most airlines won't have to add new routes or new planes. If they don't have to add new planes, then there's less need to expand the airport? Thus, it sounds like there's no urgent need to expand. So we're still left confused about why the airports are choosing to expand now.

    6% picked this

  5. A sustained decline in passenger

    No Impact / Deepens Paradox, if anything

    This answer doesn't give any reason to expand the airport now. It sounds like if this current decline in volume persists, then some airlines may go out of business. The fewer the airlines at a given airport, the less big it needs to be (one would assume). So the possibility of fewer airlines seems to lean towards LESS need to expand the airport, which just deepens the paradox of why the airports would do that now.

    3% picked this

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