Logical Reasoning

PT114 · S1 · Q17 In order to determine automobile

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In order to determine automobile insurance premiums for a driver, insurance companies calculate various risk factors; as the risk factors increase, so does the premium.

Conclusion (Yet ... should)

Insurance premiums should increase with frequency with which a person drives.

Evidence (after all)

The more you drive, the higher your chances of being involved in a mishap.

Evaluate

The sentences leading up to the Yet pivot seem to just give us the background on how insurance policies determine their premium rates.

The more risk factors, the higher the premium.

So how could we possibly counter this argument.

Given that ... driving more frequently increases your chances of getting into an accident, How could we still argue that ... premiums shouldn't increase with more frequent driving?

We'd probably have to argue that people who drive a lot do have elevated risk because they're on the road more often, but maybe something else is different about them that reduces their risk.

What if the people that drive a lot tend to ... - be better drivers - drive safer, better-maintained cars - drive on safe, more-isolated roads etc.

Goal

Let's look for something that's suggests that people who drive are more have some reason to also be considered a lower risk, thus we shouldn't increase their premiums just because they drive more.

17.

Which one of the following, if true, most undermines the argument?

  1. People who drive infrequently are

    Opposite

    This makes infrequent drivers sound lower risk (their accidents are on remote rural roads so they don't cause as much damage as highway accidents do). We want an answer that makes frequent drivers sound lower risk, so that we can argue that their premiums should not increase.

    7% picked this

  2. Correct

    People who drive infrequently are

    Why this is right

    This answer gives a reason why infrequent drivers are a bigger insurance risk than are frequent drivers: they break rules for safe driving more often. So this helps us argue the Anti-Conclusion. Premiums should not increase on frequent drivers. Even though their chance of being in an accident is increased by driving more times per year, their chance of being in an accident is decreased because they're more likely to follow safe driving rules.

    Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    82% picked this

  3. People who drive infrequently are

    Opposite

    This makes infrequent drivers sound lower risk (they're less likely to break the speed limit). We want an answer that makes frequent drivers sound lower risk, so that we can argue that their premiums should not increase.

    4% picked this

  4. People who drive frequently are

    Unclear Impact

    Does this clearly give us a sense in which the frequent drivers are lower risk? Not really. We'd have to make up a story that "long-distance trips" are safer than local trips. We don't really know that. There's no clear, common sense connection there. When we compare it to the distinction in the correct answer (more likely to follow safety rules), this one would be a bigger stretch. It's easier to say "drivers who are more likely to follow safety rules" are lower risk drivers than it is to say "drivers who are more likely to make long-distance trips" are lower risk drivers.

    3% picked this

  5. People who drive frequently are

    Opposite

    This makes infrequent drivers sound lower risk (they're less likely to drive distracted). We want an answer that makes frequent drivers sound lower risk, so that we can argue that their premiums should not increase.

    4% picked this

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