Sandy: I play the Bigbucks

Answer choices

1. A

   Not True2% picked this

   Sandy holds that the chances of anyone’s winning are unaffected by the number of times

   Sandy doesn't make any comments about how playing multiple times does / doesn't affect your odds of winning. She's only talking about when it's worth playing, not how many times someone plays. Everyone's common sense knows that the more you play, the more chances you have to win, so for someone to hold that your chances of winning are unaffected by how many times you play would have a really crazy sense of probability.

   2%
2. B

   Correct65% picked this

   Alex holds that the chances of Sandy’s winning are affected by the number of

   Why this is right

   This is certainly a true description of Alex's argument. His holding is the conclusion "you're more likely to win", which is about the chances of Sandy's winning. His evidence is about how many people are playing when the pot is large vs. small. If we didn't diagnose why this was flawed, we might guess this answer simply because it's at least an accurate description. As discussed above, this is flawed thinking because your odds of winning Bigbucks are based purely on the math of how many possible ways there are to pick five numbers. If there are ten options for each number (0 - 9), then there are 100,000 ways to pick five numbers, and thus the odds of any five number ticket winning are 1 out of 100,000, regardless of how many people play.

   Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   65%
3. C

   Bad Conclusion Match12% picked this

   Sandy holds that the chances of anyone’s winning are unaffected by the size

   Sandy never talks about the chances of anyone winning. Her conclusion is about when it's optimal to play based on the size of the pot. She isn't ever claiming that your chances of winning change. She's implying that the potential payout of winning is bigger in some cases than others.

   12%
4. D

   Opposite4% picked this

   Alex holds that the chances of Sandy’s winning in a given week are unaffected by whether anyone has

   Actually, because of Alex's flawed belief that the number of people playing affects one's chances of winning, he would actually think that your chances of winning are affected by whether someone won the week before. He would think, "If someone won last week, then this week's money pot is very small, so the fewest number of people will be playing, which makes you more likely to win."

   4%
5. E

   Bad Conclusion Match17% picked this

   Sandy holds that the chances of there being a winner go up if no one has won the

   Sandy never talks about the chances of anyone winning. Her conclusion is about when it's optimal to play based on the size of the pot. She isn't ever claiming that your chances of winning change. She's implying that the potential payout of winning is bigger in some cases than others.

   17%