Moderate exercise lowers the risk of blockage of the arteries due to blood clots, since anything that lowers blood cholesterol levels also lowers the risk of hardening of the arteries, which in turn lowers the risk of arterial blockage due to blood clots; and, if the data reported in a recent study are correct, moderate exercise lowers blood cholesterol levels.
Conclusion
Moderate exercise lowers the risk of blocked arteries from blood clots.
Evidence (since, and)
Lowers → Lowers risk → lower risk blood chol harden art's blocked art's from blood clots
If the study's data is correct, moderate exercise lowers blood cholesterol levels.
Evaluate
On Sufficient Assumption, we ask ourselves what new terms or concepts appear only in the Conclusion (because those must be in the correct answer). Here, there are no new terms. Both "moderate exercise" and "lower risk of blocked arteries from blood clots" get discussed/defined in the evidence. That means that what ever fact or link we're missing is internal to the evidence.
Consider this argument: If Michelle is right, then Tom is a vegan. Vegans never eat meat. Thus, Tom does not eat meat.
Is it airtight? If not, what are we missing?
We're missing confirmation that Michelle is right. The argument, is logically airtight.
The only reason we can't sign off on the argument yet is that we don't know if Michelle is right or not about Tom being a vegan.
By analogy: If study is right, moderate exercise lowers blood cholesterol. Lower blood cholesterol lowers risk of hardened arteries, which lowers risk of blocked arteries due to blood clots.
The only thing keeping us from concluding that is knowing whether the study is correct in claiming that "moderate exercise lowers blood cholesterol".
Goal
Find an answer saying, .