Logical Reasoning

PT110 · S3 · Q4 A group of 1,000 students

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A group of 1,000 students was randomly selected from three high schools in a medium-sized city and asked the question, “Do you plan to finish your high school education?” More than 89 percent answered “Yes. ” This shows that the overwhelming majority of students want to finish high school, and that if the national dropout rate among high school students is high, it cannot be due to a lack of desire on the part of the students.

Conclusion (this shows that)

The overwhelming majority of students want to finish high school, and a high national dropout rate cannot be due to a lack of desire.

Evidence

Of 1,000 students randomly selected from three high schools in one medium-sized city, more than 89 percent said they plan to finish high school.

Evaluate

The survey looks solid on its face: a thousand students, randomly chosen.

89% is definitely a strong (i.e. overwhelming) majority. If 89% of students from these three high schools in a medium-sized city say they wanna finish high school, does that mean we should assume a similar rate for the nation as a whole?

Hmm, we'd pump the brakes. How representative is this one city we chose? Are students in medium-sized cities more content with school than students in small or large cities?

How representative were these three schools? Are these the three best-run schools in the city, and so students there are more content than if we had surveyed at some more poorly-run schools?

What about the second part of the author's conclusion? Could we blame a high national dropout rate on a lack of desire on the part of students?

Sure, we could say that if the 11% of discontent students dropout, that's high!

We could also complain that this survey isn't talking to any people who already dropped out because they didn't want to finish high school.

Goal

There are a lot of potential issues with this survey, so who knows what the answer will discuss, but it's just one city, just three schools, and only talks to the self-selecting sample of students who have chosen not to dropout yet, so it's hard to argue that it speaks for the nation at large.

4.

The reasoning of the argument above is questionable because the argument

  1. fails to justify its presumption

    Bad Objection

    Calling 89 percent an overwhelming majority is reasonable and needs no special justification. A majority starts at 51%, so 89% vs. 11% is a resounding split in the vote.

    0% picked this

  2. attempts to draw two conflicting

    Bad Description

    The two conclusions do not conflict. That most students want to finish, and that a high dropout rate would therefore not stem from lack of desire, fit together; the second follows from the first.

    2% picked this

  3. overlooks the possibility that there

    Bad Objection

    It does not overlook the possibility. By stating the hypothetical "if the national dropout rate is high", the author is explicitly acknowledging the possibility that the dropout rate might not be high.

    1% picked this

  4. contradicts itself by admitting that

    Self-Contradiction

    Admitting that the dropout rate may be high while claiming most students want to finish is not a contradiction. Students can want to finish and still drop out for reasons unrelated to desire, which is the author's own point.

    2% picked this

  5. Correct

    treats high school students from

    Why this is right

    Since this is structured treats X as if it's Y we would want X to match the Evidence and Y to match where the author takes the evidence. Was the evidence "high school students from a particular medium-sized city"? Yes. The 1,000 students all came from three high schools in one medium-sized city. Is the author treating that as "representative of high school students nationwide"? Yes. The conclusion is about students nationwide and the national dropout rate. Is that objectionable? Yes. Students in that one city may not resemble students elsewhere, so the sample cannot give us a trustworthy snapshot of the whole country.

    Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    95% picked this

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