Logical Reasoning

PT109 · S3 · Q8 Most people invest in the

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Most people invest in the stock market without doing any research of their own.

Statements

quantified (most, some)

Most stock market don't do research investors of their own

Some non-researching rely totally on investors broker's advice

Some non-researching rely totally on investors their hunches

Some researching still rely sometimes on investors broker or hunches

Few researching always do their own investors research before investing

Most stock market make a profit investors

Evaluate

That is a mountain of information. It feels wishy-washy: some do this, some don't. Others do something else but also those previous things.

But if we're doing Inference (Must Be True / Most Supported) and we see quantified claims, we can remind ourselves of the two main Trait Overlap inferences that get tested:

Most A's are B Some A's are B + Most A's are C + All B's are C Some B's are C Some A's are C

To make one of these Trait Overlap inferences, you either need a conditional-strength word like "All", or you need two "Most" claims. None of these claims were all / each / any / every / none.

But we do receive two most claims, and they are about the same group.

Most [investors] do no research Most [investors] make a profit

So they might be testing us on the idea that "do no research" and "make a profit" have to overlap.

If there are 100 investors , at a minimum 51 make a profit and 49 don't make a profit. Meanwhile, at least 51 do no research.

Do some of those "do no research" people have to be in the "make a profit" group?

Yes! Because you can't cram all 51 people who do no research into the 49-person group of people who don't make a profit. At least two of them overlap into the "make profit" group.

None of the other claims have the power to combine with each other to make this sort of Trait Overlap inference, but there are certainly other directions that answer could go.

Goal

Look for the most provable idea we can find (it might be establishing that there must be some overlap between "people who do no research" and "making a profit").

8.

If the statements in the passage are true, which one of the following must also be true?

  1. Correct

    Some people who make a

    Why this is right

    This is what we were anticipating. Whenever we know Most A's are B and we know Most A's are C, then at least one member of A has to be both B and C. We know Most [investors] do no research Most [investors] make a profit So we know that at least one person both makes a profit and does no research, which is what this answer choice says.

    Skill tested: Must be True · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    70% picked this

  2. Most people who invest in

    Too Strong: most

    The first sentence tells us that most investors do no research of their own. Let's pretend that's 51 out of 100 investors. The second sentence says, "Some of the 51 use broker, some of the 51 use hunches". Some = at least one. So out of our 51 investors who do no research, we need a minimum of 1 to rely on broker and 1 to rely on hunches. Thus, out of our 100 investors, only 2 of them can we say for sure "rely solely on broker or decide merely on hunches". But this answer is saying that we know at least 51 of them are that way. The fact that the 2nd sentence only mentions (broker / hunches) as two possibilities for those who don't do their own research doesn't mean that these two possibilities are the only options for investors who do no research. Maybe some look at a crystal ball. Some ask their cat.

    5% picked this

  3. Some people who do investment

    Can't Prove Overlap

    This answer is trying to join traits from Some claims with the "profit" part of the Most claim. We can't prove that Some claims and Most claims overlap. We know that most investors make a profit, so at least 51 of our 100 investors. And the 3rd sentence, which says "Other people do some research on their own, or rely on broker or on hunches" is implicitly a Some statement. If I say, "Some teenagers worry about their social standing. Other teenagers deliver speeches to the UN about climate change", my second statement is just referring to one teenager (Greta Thurnberg). So we only know that there's at least 1 investor who does some research of their own but just as often relies on a broker or hunches. We can't prove that this 1 investor is one of the 51 who make a profit. They could just as easily be one of the 49 who don't make a profit.

    15% picked this

  4. Most people who invest in

    Too Strong: most Unknown Most Group

    This answer is guaranteed to be wrong, since if it were correct, then answer (A) would also be correct. It's also going to be wrong because it's making a Most claim about a group, and the stimulus never made a Most claim about that group. (A correct answer won't make a Most claim about a group, unless the stimulus also made a most claim about that group). This answer is talking about "most non-researching investors". The stimulus never gave us a fact about "most non-researching investors". The only most claims were the first and last sentences, both of which were about "most investors". (D) is trying to get us to make this illegal move: Most A's are B Most A's are C thus, Most B's are C If I say "most of the people at my wedding were female, and most of the people at my wedding were basketball fans", does that mean that "most of the females at my wedding were basketball fans"? No. There might have been 51 females, 49 males. All 49 males and 11 of the females were basketball fans. Since 60 out of 100 are bball fans, we can say "most people at by wedding were basketball fans". But since only 11 of the 51 females were basketball fans, we can't say that "most of the females were bball fans". That's the same sort of problem with supporting this answer. It might be that the vast majority of investors who make a profit are those who do do their own research. We know that some non-researchers have to make a profit, but it doesn't need to be most of them.

    9% picked this

  5. Most people who rely solely

    Too Strong: most Unknown Most Group

    This answer is making a Most claim about a group, and the stimulus never made a Most claim about that group. (A correct answer won't make a Most claim about a group, unless the stimulus also made a most claim about that group). This answer is talking about "most people who rely on broker not hunches". The stimulus never gave us a fact about "most people who rely on broker not hunches". The only most claims were the first and last sentences, both of which were about "most investors". We can't possibly quantity what percentage of people who rely solely on their broker end up making a profit; we have no idea whether that percentage exceeds 50% of that group.

    1% picked this

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